- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Twins Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Astros / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | SCHN | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on Thursday, April 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Astros are 2-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 2-4 ATS.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 0-1, 2.84 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 0-0, 1.80 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -235 | O 7 +100 | +105 |
| Twins | -1.5 +175 | U 7 -120 | -125 |
Astros vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+13.10 Units / 84% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.55 Units / 68% ROI)
- Brendan Rodgers has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+10.55 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+15.30 Units / 383% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 1-5 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -56.59% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -41.22% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -38.97% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 27.34% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 2-4 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -32.26% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -37.71% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 44.62% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -52.99% ROI
Twins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Twins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Twins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 5.5 -185 | 5.5 +135 |
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has thrown elevated pitches 64% of the time (29/45) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 52% (123/235) against Hunter Brown since last season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (69/237) against Hunter Brown on fastballs in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed a slugging percentage of just .189 (72 Total Bases / 381 ABs) with two-strikes since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — 92nd Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a swing rate of 57% (708/1,249) against Joe Ryan in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strike rate of 71% (884/1,249) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (144/435) against Joe Ryan in 2023 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Joe Ryan threw his changeup 26% of the time (172/671) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were 65-10 (.867) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins were 40-18 (.690) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Astros (10th best runs scored) today.
The Twins were just 15-28 (.349) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Astros (10th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are 63-27 (.700) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Twins are 142-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .849 (926 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .679.
Astros hitters struck out just 327 times in 1,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .096 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .227.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .190 (58 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .363 (58 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents are hitting just .165 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Astros pitchers walked 544 of 6,019 batters (9%) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Twins pitchers have picked-off 1 runner from first base this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
More MLB Reading:
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