- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Blue Jays / Padres TV Channel: PDTV | MLBN | RSN1
The Toronto Blue Jays (+110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Sunday, April 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Blue Jays are 12-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 11-12 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 2-2, 3.97 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 2-2, 6.47 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -130 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Belt has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Chris Bassitt has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brandon Belt has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 away games (+5.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Chris Bassitt has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joe Musgrove has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Eguy Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Eguy Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.25 Units / 48% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 139 games (+11.74 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 138 games (+14.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 12-9 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 5.87% ROI).
- 12-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 7.78% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -18.79% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 8.23% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 11-12 against the Run Line (-0.03 Units / -0.11% ROI).
- 11-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.21 Units / -4.41% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.93 Units / -3.64% ROI
- 11-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -3.57% ROI
Padres vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .191 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 94th Percentile and .641 vs left-handed batters this season (worst among qualified SPs)– first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (2/22) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among in AL; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (12 Total Bases / 15 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .326 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (3/42) against Chris Bassitt with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .429 (112 PA’s) this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: .302 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .337 (32-for-95) against Joe Musgrove this season — 2nd highest among in NL; League Avg: .237 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .337 (32-for-95) against Joe Musgrove this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — fourth Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .429 (112 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — second Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Blue Jays are 21-15 (.583) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Blue Jays are 71-114 (.384) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Blue Jays are just 9-63 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Blue Jays are 15-9 (.625) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Padres are 22-24 (.478) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Padres are just 1-77 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 541 strikeouts in 2,808 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .271 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Blue Jays hitters have just 295 strikeouts in 1,569 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .336 (2,808 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 28 walks in 186 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are batting .486 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .202 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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