- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Braves vs Cubs Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Braves / Cubs TV Channel: TBS | BSSO | MARQ
The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Braves are 27-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 25-23 ATS.
Braves vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 3-1, 3.66 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 4-0, 1.48 ERA
Braves vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | O 11 -110 | -125 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -150 | U 11 -110 | +105 |
Braves vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+16.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+16.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 away games (+14.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+14.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+17.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+15.90 Units / 94% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games at home (+13.90 Units / 93% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 33 games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+12.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 30 games (+20.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 31 games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 19 away games (+2.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 games (+3.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 22-22 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 1.81% ROI).
- 27-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 14-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.4 Units / -34.17% ROI
- 28-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.6 Units / 25.77% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 25-23 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -4.24% ROI).
- 26-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 8.85% ROI
- 20-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -18.62% ROI
- 27-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.95 Units / 9.38% ROI
Cubs vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Cubs vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cubs vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Cubs vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad (CHC) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 6.5 +135 | 6.5 -175 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has walked 39 of 338 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (293/730) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 62 of 617 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 37 of 333 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .132 (21-for-159) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has allowed an OBP of just .171 (41 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (23/140) against Javier Assad this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .088 (3-for-34) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Braves are 34-56 (.378) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Braves are 49-48 (.505) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 29-40 (.420) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cubs are 25-21 (.543) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Cubs are just 40-39 (.506) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Cubs are just 16-30 (.348) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .474 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters are slugging .526 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .814 (6,077 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Braves hitters are slugging .482 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .472 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .368.
The Cubs are batting .295 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
27% of Cubs hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .777 (2,120 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 22 double plays in 365 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 31% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Cubs have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Cubs vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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