- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Braves vs Cubs Over / Under today: 11 Runs
- Braves / Cubs TV Channel: BSSO | MARQ
The Atlanta Braves () visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs () on Wednesday, May 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Braves are 27-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 26-23 ATS.
Braves vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 3-2, 3.78 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 0-1, 5.22 ERA
Braves vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Cubs | U |
Braves vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 59.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+17.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+15.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+15.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+15.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+13.05 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+18.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+14.90 Units / 83% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games at home (+12.90 Units / 81% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games (+11.40 Units / 33% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 31 games (+21.45 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 32 games (+3.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.20 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games (+2.55 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 22-23 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.2% ROI).
- 27-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -0.88% ROI
- 14-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.55 Units / -35.71% ROI
- 29-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.6 Units / 27.23% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 26-23 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -2.7% ROI).
- 27-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 10.47% ROI
- 20-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -20.35% ROI
- 28-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 11.06% ROI
Cubs vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Cubs vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cubs vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Cubs vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad (CHC) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 6.5 +135 | 6.5 -175 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 83.0 MPH (106 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (38/56) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.0 MPH this season (106 balls in play) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (73/108) against Max Fried this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (570/1,308) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,474/3,447) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (233/518) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (2,466/3,447) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Braves are 34-56 (.378) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Braves are 85-46 (.649) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Braves are 29-40 (.420) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cubs are 26-21 (.553) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Cubs are just 40-39 (.506) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Cubs are just 16-30 (.348) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.00 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
26% of Cubs hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters have drawn 143 walks in 1,434 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .261 (4,372 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.1 MPH this season (1,072 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.1 MPH (1,072 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 22 double plays in 376 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 31% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (217.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Cubs vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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