- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Marlins TV Channel: BSSO | BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-190) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+155) on Friday, April 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Braves are 7-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 3-10 ATS.
Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 0-0, 16.89 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-1, 5.41 ERA
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -105 | -190 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -115 | +155 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 65.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+9.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 away games (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.50 Units / 73% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 88 of their last 154 games (+18.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.34 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 109 games (+3.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 4-7 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -25.1% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 48.33% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -56.15% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 3-10 against the Run Line (-10.3 Units / -60.06% ROI).
- 2-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -66.22% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 19.22% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -26.46% ROI
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (163 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 74.3 MPH (3 batted balls) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 88.9 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (123/211) against Max Fried in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .232 (397 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 80.0 MPH (16 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 88.9 — 98th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 57% (71/125) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .367 (461 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to April 14th, 2023 — the longest active streak is 8.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 47-42 (.528) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Braves are 33-47 (.412) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 106-26 (.803) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
The Marlins were 7-65 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are 13-152 (.079) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are 57-10 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .473 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters are slugging .602 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Braves hitters are slugging .501 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 49% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .216 (186 PA’s) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 71 of 536 batters (13%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 2 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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