- The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Marlins TV Channel: BSSE | BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-200) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+165) on Saturday, April 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Braves are 8-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 3-11 ATS.
Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 1-0, 3.49 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 1-0, 2.46 ERA
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -105 | -200 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -115 | +165 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 64.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+9.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 away games (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.50 Units / 73% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 87 of their last 153 games (+17.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.34 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 109 games (+3.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -15.85% ROI).
- 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 3.93% ROI
- 9-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 51.52% ROI
- 2-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -59.47% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 3-11 against the Run Line (-11.3 Units / -62.26% ROI).
- 2-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -68.34% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 24.26% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -31.19% ROI
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -120 |
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (95/219) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has averaged 78.0 MPH on sliders since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 84.9 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 48% (162/336) against Chris Sale with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (179/370) against Chris Sale with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Meyer has allowed a BABIP of .103 this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Max Meyer’s pitches (65/162) this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Max Meyer has allowed an OBP of just .148 (27 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .313 — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 39% (38/97) against Max Meyer this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 47-43 (.522) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 33-48 (.407) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Braves are 170-35 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins were 54-8 (.871) when they scored 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Marlins are 43-6 (.878) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Marlins are 13-153 (.078) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are 24-3 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters are slugging .501 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .857 (1,592 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 50% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .454 (263 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .222 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .371.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 75 of 580 batters (13%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.30 (75.2 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 2 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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