- The Braves are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Marlins TV Channel: BSSO | BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Sunday, April 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Braves are 8-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 3-11 ATS.
Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 1-0, 3.38 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 0-2, 7.37 ERA
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -115 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -105 | +125 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.70 Units / 110% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+6.60 Units / 107% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.60 Units / 107% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.35 Units / 75% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 87 of their last 153 games (+17.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.34 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 109 games (+3.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -15.85% ROI).
- 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 3.93% ROI
- 9-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 51.52% ROI
- 2-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -59.47% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 3-11 against the Run Line (-11.3 Units / -62.26% ROI).
- 2-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -68.34% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 24.26% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -31.19% ROI
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (MIA) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (1,485/4,203) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton allowed an OBP of .344 (713 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — fourth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (2,406/5,941) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 46% of the time (664/1,432) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .582 (32 Total Bases / 55 ABs) this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: .388 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has walked 9 of 65 batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .958 (23 Total Bases / 24 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: .552 — second Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .743 (26 Total Bases / 35 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: .376 — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves were 30-46 (.395) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Braves are 170-35 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Braves are 47-43 (.522) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 107-26 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins were 54-8 (.871) when they scored 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Marlins are 7-75 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are 43-6 (.878) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .801 (9,615 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .478 (292 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Braves pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Braves have allowed 7.33 runs per game (44/6) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.78.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 75 of 613 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 438.4
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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