- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Phillies Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Braves / Phillies TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | NSPA | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Braves are 25-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 30-24 ATS.
Braves vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 3-2, 3.68 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 6-1, 2.42 ERA
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 +100 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 -120 | -150 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 58.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 games (+22.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+16.30 Units / 204% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+10.40 Units / 173% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+13.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+9.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.58 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 22-30 against the Run Line (-7.72 Units / -12.58% ROI).
- 25-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.58 Units / -18.31% ROI
- 19-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -22.09% ROI
- 29-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 14.36% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 30-24 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 5.47% ROI).
- 35-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 9.64% ROI
- 23-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -16.53% ROI
- 30-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 8.53% ROI
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 65% (43/66) against AJ Smith-Shawver on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 79% (19/24) against AJ Smith-Shawver on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 10th Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed a batting average of just .194 versus the top of the order (tied for 14th best)– 89th Percentile and .326 versus the bottom of the order this season (13th worst among non-qualified SPs)– 10th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .210 (476 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .285 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler allowed an OPS of just .434 (369 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .109 (61-for-561) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler allowed an OBP of just .201 (368 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 4-21 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Braves are 218-159 (.578) since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 46-45 (.505) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Phillies (fifth best runs scored) today.
The Braves are just 17-5 (.773) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 8-13 (.381) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 2-16 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .415 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .784 (2,569 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters are slugging .442 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
More MLB Reading:
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