- The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Phillies TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | NSPA | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Thursday, May 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Braves are 25-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 30-24 ATS.
Braves vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 3-2, 3.68 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 4-1, 3.15 ERA
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -105 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -115 | -150 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 games (+22.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+16.30 Units / 204% ROI)
- Drake Baldwin has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+10.40 Units / 173% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+13.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+9.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.58 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 22-30 against the Run Line (-7.72 Units / -12.58% ROI).
- 25-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.58 Units / -18.31% ROI
- 19-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -22.09% ROI
- 29-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 14.36% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 30-24 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 5.47% ROI).
- 35-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 9.64% ROI
- 23-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -16.53% ROI
- 30-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 8.53% ROI
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
15 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (31/72) against Chris Sale on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
47 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since last season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
15 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has a strikeout rate of 55% with two strikes this season — fourth highest among qualified SPs– 96th Percentile. He had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two strikes last season — sixth lowest among qualified SPs– 11th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .161 (56-for-348) against Zack Wheeler in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .238 (269 PA’s) this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .301 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (136/221) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are just 5-13 (.278) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Phillies (12th best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are just 9-19 (.321) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Braves are just 17-5 (.773) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Braves are 23-16 (.590) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 8-13 (.381) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Phillies are 14-136 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .784 (2,569 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Phillies hitters are slugging .442 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Phillies are batting .272 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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