- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Braves vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Braves / Pirates TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | SNPT
The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) on Friday, May 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Braves are 18-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-26 ATS.
Braves vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 2-1, 5.07 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 1-3, 5.02 ERA
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -120 | -145 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 9 +100 | +120 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 20 games (+20.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games at home (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+7.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 31 games (+2.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 17-20 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -7% ROI).
- 18-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -13.49% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -9.37% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 1.36% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-26 against the Run Line (-19.5 Units / -39.55% ROI).
- 12-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.45 Units / -33.29% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -13.84% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 5.95% ROI
Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder (ATL) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 36% of Bryce Elder’s fastballs (95/267) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Bryce Elder had a strikeout rate of just 16% (33/207) versus the bottom of the order in 2023 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Bryce Elder has thrown his slider 45% of the time (45/101) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 58% (143/246) against Bryce Elder in 2023 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 62 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (30 Total Bases / 30 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .548 — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 22 opportunities (27%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed an OPS of 1.229 (26 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Braves are 74-59 (.556) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Pirates (24th best runs scored) today.
The Braves are 5-13 (.278) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Braves are just 10-3 (.769) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 0-14 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Pirates are just 7-58 (.108) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (4,824 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .325 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .308 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .379.
Pirates hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 43% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 33 double plays in 238 opportunities (14%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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