- The Rays are -145 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Rays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Rays TV Channel: FSUN | FDSO | FDSE
The Atlanta Braves (+118) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-145) on Saturday, April 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Braves are 3-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 4-9 ATS.
Braves vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 0-2, 5.20 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen 1-0, 0.90 ERA
Braves vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 +100 | +118 |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -120 | -145 |
Braves vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+7.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+7.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 69% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.35 Units / 93% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+10.40 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 103 of their last 166 games (+41.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 157 games (+14.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 86 away games (+2.35 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 86 away games (+1.00 Units / 1% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 98 of their last 162 games (+30.21 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 94 of their last 162 games (+19.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 162 games (+19.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 5-8 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -25.75% ROI).
- 3-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -54.96% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -25.44% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 4-9 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -40.26% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -15.14% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -32.87% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 26.86% ROI
Rays vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Rays vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Danny Jansen (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Rays vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 19% (7/37) against AJ Smith-Shawver on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (13 Total Bases / 15 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .386 — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 21% of AJ Smith-Shawver’s breaking pitches (11/52) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (24/64) against AJ Smith-Shawver this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 65% of the time (60/92) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has not allowed a home run in any of the last 51.1 innings he’s appeared — Paul Skenes has the longest active streak at 56.1.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .180 (17 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .682 — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 54% of the time (81/149) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Braves are just 3-10 (.231) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Braves were 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Braves are just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Braves are 95-75 (.559) on the road since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Rays are 77-22 (.778) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Rays are 30-120 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Rays are 12-132 (.083) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are 50-8 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Braves batted .288 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .363 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Rays hitters have 371 strikeouts in 1,477 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have walked 94 of 1,559 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 30 of 468 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 5 of 115 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays pitchers have walked 475 of 6,492 batters (7%) since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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