- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Saturday, May 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Brewers are 26-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 19-26 ATS.
Brewers vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson 2-1, 2.65 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 2-1, 3.42 ERA
Brewers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -105 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -130 | -150 |
Brewers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+25.70 Units / 321% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+18.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 away games (+15.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games (+22.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 18 games (+18.75 Units / 104% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 23 games at home (+17.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+15.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 games (+7.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 23-21 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.39% ROI).
- 26-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 15.12% ROI
- 27-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.6 Units / 17.81% ROI
- 17-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.5 Units / -25.77% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 19-26 against the Run Line (-7 Units / -12.89% ROI).
- 20-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.6 Units / -18.56% ROI
- 17-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -20.73% ROI
- 25-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.3 Units / 12.64% ROI
Astros vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Astros vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryse Wilson (MIL) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (157/807) against Bryse Wilson since last season — 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OBP of just .224 (107 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (38/215) against Bryse Wilson with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (157/807) against Bryse Wilson since last season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — fifth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 4% (1/23) against Justin Verlander over the last 14 days — lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 4% (1/23) against Justin Verlander — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 11% (4/35) against Justin Verlander over the last 14 days — lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Justin Verlander has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (484/1,173) when behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 27-52 (.342) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Brewers are 29-15 (.659) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Brewers are 47-37 (.560) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Astros are 153-21 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Astros are 174-18 (.906) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Astros are 29-20 (.592) after a road loss since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Astros are 30-23 (.566) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OPS of 1.011 (59 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .644.
The Brewers are batting just .235 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have 73 strikeouts in 289 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are slugging .451 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .357.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 734 strikeouts in 4,164 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 86 strikeouts in 513 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,902/14,026 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
The Astros are batting .266 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.33 (640.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have walked 183 of 1,734 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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