- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | ESPN+ | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Brewers are 20-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 22-11 ATS.
Brewers vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 0-1, 4.50 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 2-0, 1.50 ERA
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -110 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -110 | -125 |
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+16.25 Units / 96% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 20 games (+13.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.90 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+15.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 24 games (+14.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 16-15 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -4.62% ROI).
- 20-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.85 Units / 28.14% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.15 Units / 12.31% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -19.57% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 22-11 against the Run Line (+8.55 Units / 17.81% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 15.23% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -19.04% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 10.37% ROI
Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Mike Tauchman (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nick Madrigal (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tobias Myers has limited playing time.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has a strike rate of 71% (939/1,326) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 19 of 777 right-handed batters (2%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (86/272) against Jameson Taillon against right-handed batters since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 81% (38/47) of opposing batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 40-92 (.303) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Brewers are 36-22 (.621) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 26-47 (.356) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Brewers are 27-14 (.659) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 36-39 (.480) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Cubs are 23-19 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Cubs are just 15-27 (.357) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are 38-21 (.644) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have drawn 27 walks in 204 PA’s (13%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .344 (1,014 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Brewers are batting just .198 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .818 (233 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Cubs hitters are slugging .491 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .372.
Cubs hitters are slugging .456 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .790 (1,950 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Brewers pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.75 (1721.0 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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