- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Brewers vs Cubs Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Brewers / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+110) on Sunday, May 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Brewers are 20-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 22-12 ATS.
Brewers vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 3-0, 3.24 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 2-0, 1.97 ERA
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | O 6.5 -115 | -130 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -185 | U 6.5 -105 | +110 |
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 21 games (+23.00 Units / 110% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+17.80 Units / 99% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+16.65 Units / 278% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+16.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+12.25 Units / 81% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+9.85 Units / 29% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 17-15 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -2.28% ROI).
- 20-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 24.58% ROI
- 19-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.15 Units / 14.8% ROI
- 13-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -22.05% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 22-12 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 15.41% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 17.13% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -15.82% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 7.11% ROI
Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tyler Black (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tyler Black (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 43% (36/84) against Freddy Peralta this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .194 (57-for-294) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has struck out 39% (27/69) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 41% (22 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .272 (54 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .102 (5-for-49) against Javier Assad when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 97th Percentile.
Javier Assad has allowed an OBP of just .210 (138 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .324 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Javier Assad when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .319 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 20-12 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 15-10 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 20-16 (.556) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Brewers are 26-48 (.351) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are 38-21 (.644) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Cubs are just 15-27 (.357) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are just 37-39 (.487) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have drawn 27 walks in 204 PA’s (13%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,054 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .491 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
The Cubs have scored first in 73% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of 73% at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .348 (557 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 16 double plays in 266 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.00 (135.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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