- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Padres TV Channel: BSWI | PDTV
The Milwaukee Brewers (+130) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Friday, June 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Brewers are 44-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 39-40 ATS.
Brewers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 6-2, 3.29 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 6-6, 3.95 ERA
Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 -105 | +130 |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -115 | -155 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+35.90 Units / 449% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+16.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 75 games (+11.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 75 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 71 games (+6.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 47 games (+5.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games (+5.19 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.65 Units / 80% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+4.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+4.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 39-36 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 44-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.55 Units / 12.42% ROI
- 39-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 5.37% ROI
- 32-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -13.18% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 39-40 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 1.35% ROI).
- 39-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.2 Units / -8.92% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -4.16% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -4.63% ROI
Padres vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Padres vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of .918 (126 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .675 — fourth Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .569 (66 Total Bases / 116 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (48/253) against Colin Rea this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (20/107) against Colin Rea on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (4,334/7,866) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 61% of the time (2,465/4,063) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .199 (126-for-632) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 96th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 54% of the time (128/236) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 47-37 (.560) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Brewers are 26-19 (.578) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Brewers are 56-31 (.644) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 8-21 (.276) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Padres are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .059.
The Padres are just 10-153 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are just 1-102 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Brewers are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 922 strikeouts in 4,529 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.70 (1057.0 IP) on the road since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 24 of 164 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (5,813 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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