- The Phillies are -190 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Phillies TV Channel: FS1 | NSPA | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+154) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Saturday, May 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 30-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 30-27 ATS.
Brewers vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Chad Patrick 2-4, 3.00 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 5-0, 2.15 ERA
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -115 | +154 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +118 | U 8 -105 | -190 |
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 61.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 54 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 31 games (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 games (+8.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+6.64 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games (+5.58 Units / 8% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 29-28 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -4.92% ROI).
- 30-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 1.3% ROI
- 22-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -22.8% ROI
- 33-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 13.95% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 30-27 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 36-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.6 Units / 7.99% ROI
- 25-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -14.25% ROI
- 31-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 5.99% ROI
Phillies vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Phillies vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -140 |
| Chad Patrick (MIL) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (46/169) against Chad Patrick this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
72% of Chad Patrick’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (17/64) against Chad Patrick in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 35% (28/80) against Chad Patrick this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
33% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .379 (11-for-29) against Jesus Luzardo’s low fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — seventh Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 53% (77 SO in 146 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 93rd Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 46% (50 SO in 109 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 92nd Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 53-5 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Brewers were 93-69 (.574) in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers were 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 59-43 (.578) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season They play the Phillies (12th best runs allowed) today.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 8-14 (.364) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Phillies are 14-137 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies are 112-22 (.836) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Phillies are 33-119 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .140.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .404 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 57% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Brewers vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
