- The Brewers are +105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) on Friday, May 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 25-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 20-31 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 5-3, 2.59 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 3-5, 2.44 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +180 | O 7 -118 | +105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -220 | U 7 -102 | -125 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+17.00 Units / 212% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+12.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Adam Frazier has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 47 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.62 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+12.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.50 Units / 35% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 25-25 against the Run Line (-4.9 Units / -7.04% ROI).
- 25-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -4% ROI
- 19-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -23.11% ROI
- 29-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.1 Units / 14.45% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 20-31 against the Run Line (-17.5 Units / -26.62% ROI).
- 17-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.85 Units / -26.26% ROI
- 18-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.55 Units / -26.15% ROI
- 30-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.2 Units / 18.04% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -295 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a in-zone of just 41% (379/932) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a in-zone of just 38% (167/435) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a in-zone of just 34% (65/189) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (2,429/3,998) since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .127 (134 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .079 (10-for-127) against Paul Skenes with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .027 (1 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on sliders this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .380 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .552 (757 PA’s) since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .716 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Brewers are 53-5 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Brewers were 30-12 (.714) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Brewers are 111-76 (.594) at home since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 7-62 (.101) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 11-42 (.208) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates are just 6-19 (.240) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Pirates are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .326 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Pirates are batting just .206 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 40% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 35% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Brewers have won just 10% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 58% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Pirates pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 4% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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