- The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (+120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) on Friday, March 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ, USA.
This season, the Cubs are 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 0-2 ATS.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +120 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -145 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jameson Taillon has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jameson Taillon has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 118% ROI)
- Jameson Taillon has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jameson Taillon has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jameson Taillon has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pavin Smith has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Walks Under in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.25 Units / 61% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.55 Units / 104% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 away games (+14.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 away games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+5.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 106 games (+32.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 105 games (+16.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 97 games (+13.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 97 games (+12.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 162 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 1-2 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -35.48% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -33.33% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 31.75% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -36.23% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 0-2 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -100% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -7.14% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -4.65% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -6.67% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 -118 | 4.5 -110 |
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 20% (83/424) against Jameson Taillon in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (38/209) against Jameson Taillon on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Jameson Taillon had a strikeout rate of just 15% (39/252) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has a strikeout rate of just 20% (155 SO in 785 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 21st Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly walked 25 of 207 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
83% of Merrill Kelly’s non-fastball strikeouts were located out of the zone in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (175/284) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly located 59% of his pitches away (669/1,142) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in 2024 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Cubs are 76-47 (.618) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Phillies (fifth best runs scored) today.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks were 20-17 (.541) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Diamondbacks are 42-44 (.488) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .374.
The Diamondbacks are 133-33 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Diamondbacks are just 147-12 (.925) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters slugged .456 against LHP in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Cubs batted just .227 at home in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs hitters had an OBP of just .302 (2,894 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Cubs hitters had an OBP of .264 (3,361 PA’s) with two-strikes in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .271 (3,271 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Diamondbacks batted .276 at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 1,779 strikeouts in 8,728 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (1470.0 IP) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 53% of their games last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Diamondbacks pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH (4,287 batted balls) last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
More MLB Reading:
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