- The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Mets TV Channel: FOX
The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-150) on Saturday, May 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Cubs are 22-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 22-17 ATS.
Cubs vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Brad Keller 0-0, 3.71 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 3-2, 2.46 ERA
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+24.90 Units / 311% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+12.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+10.95 Units / 137% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+17.50 Units / 175% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+13.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 35 games (+16.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 20-19 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 3.92% ROI).
- 22-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 5.1% ROI
- 23-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.9 Units / 18.81% ROI
- 14-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.8 Units / -26.94% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 22-17 against the Run Line (+7.4 Units / 15.24% ROI).
- 25-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 10.33% ROI
- 15-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -24.62% ROI
- 23-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.3 Units / 14.74% ROI
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Brad Keller (CHC) | 1.5 -115 | 1.5 -115 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brad Keller allowed a batting average of just .108 vs right-handed batters (best)– 100th Percentile and .407 vs left-handed batters this season (worst among qualified RPs)– 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .407 (11-for-27) against Brad Keller this season — 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .222 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (18/26) against Brad Keller this season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Brad Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .553 (57 Total Bases / 103 ABs) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: .371 — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill allowed an OBP of .475 (120 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed a slugging percentage of just .190 (12 Total Bases / 63 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .404 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .127 (8-for-63) against Tylor Megill this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed a slugging percentage of just .159 (10 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on elevated fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .369 — 99th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are 11-5 (.688) after a loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Cubs are 80-49 (.620) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Cubs are 12-8 (.600) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Cubs are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .122.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 9-3 (.750) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Cubs (12th best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 8-71 (.101) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .261 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .829 (808 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .842 (373 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Cubs hitters are slugging .489 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have struck out in just 8% of it’s PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters are slugging .442 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Mets are batting .274 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Cubs allowed 3.41 runs per game (276/81) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The Cubs have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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