- The Mets are -155 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Cubs / Mets TV Channel: MARQ | SNY | MLBN
The Chicago Cubs (+130) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-155) on Friday, May 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Cubs are 22-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 21-17 ATS.
Cubs vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 2-1, 3.86 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 4-1, 2.95 ERA
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -115 | +130 |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -105 | -155 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 away games (+31.90 Units / 319% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+12.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+9.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jameson Taillon has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+9.05 Units / 129% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+13.40 Units / 149% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+13.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 29% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 34 games (+17.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games (+15.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 20-18 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 7.92% ROI).
- 22-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 7.28% ROI
- 22-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 16.85% ROI
- 14-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.65 Units / -24.97% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 21-17 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 12.3% ROI).
- 24-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 8.81% ROI
- 14-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -27.62% ROI
- 23-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 17.91% ROI
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has allowed a .623 SLG vs right-handed batters (worst)– first Percentile and just .235 vs left-handed batters this season (fourth best among qualified SPs)– 95th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .683 (41 Total Bases / 60 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .363 — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OPS of 1.022 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .651 — second Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .623 (43 Total Bases / 69 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (54/77) against Clay Holmes in two-strike counts since last season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes since last season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 75% (56/75) against Clay Holmes in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (225/343) against Clay Holmes since the 2023 season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are 12-7 (.632) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Cubs are 39-12 (.765) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .634.
The Cubs are 80-49 (.620) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-3 (.727) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Cubs (12th best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 11-3 (.786) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Mets are 36-27 (.571) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Cubs (12th best runs scored) today.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .497 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .379.
Cubs hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .836 (773 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .182 (88 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters slugged .440 against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,912 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are batting just .282 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Mets hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Cubs pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Cubs allowed 3.41 runs per game (276/81) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mets have have still managed to win 62% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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