- The Cubs are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Cubs vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Nationals TV Channel: MARQ | MASN
The Chicago Cubs (-140) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+115) on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Cubs are 38-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 32-28 ATS.
Cubs vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 5-2, 3.07 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-5, 3.21 ERA
Cubs vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +120 | O 8.5 -110 | -140 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | U 8.5 -110 | +115 |
Cubs vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+13.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt Shaw has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matthew Boyd has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 away games (+9.35 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+14.50 Units / 161% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 58 games (+14.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 54 games (+13.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+10.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.39 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+6.11 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games at home (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 32-28 against the Run Line (+4.47 Units / 6.06% ROI).
- 38-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 12.7% ROI
- 34-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.25 Units / 15.72% ROI
- 22-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -23.49% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 32-28 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -2.13% ROI).
- 28-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.43 Units / 5.47% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.69% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -7.68% ROI
Nationals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Nationals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -105 |
| Matthew Boyd (CHC) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .370 (17-for-46) against Matthew Boyd with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has walked 3% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has thrown his changeup 35% of the time (64/183) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (61/173) against Matthew Boyd this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 11th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 30% (141/473) versus MacKenzie Gore in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 38% (41 SO in 108 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 39% (42 SO in 108 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (206/593) against MacKenzie Gore this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are 2-17 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Cubs are 16-5 (.762) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Cubs are 75-31 (.708) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .625.
The Cubs are 46-12 (.793) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 160-187 (.460) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 84-105 (.442) at home since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 167-214 (.437) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .841 (1,175 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Cubs are batting .416 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Cubs hitters are slugging .500 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Cubs hitters have drawn walks in 4% of their PA’s against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 46% of the time this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have a strike rate of 65% this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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