- The Orioles are -140 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Orioles Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | MARQ | MLBN
The Chicago Cubs (+120) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-140) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Cubs are 44-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 50-42 ATS.
Cubs vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 1-3, 2.94 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Albert Suarez 5-2, 2.48 ERA
Cubs vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +140 | U 9 +100 | -140 |
Cubs vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 away games (+18.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+14.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 32 games (+30.25 Units / 95% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+17.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+10.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+10.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 58% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 83 games (+15.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 77 games (+14.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 45 games (+6.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+5.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 45-48 against the Run Line (-13.3 Units / -10.3% ROI).
- 44-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.05 Units / -5.34% ROI
- 40-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -14.36% ROI
- 50-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.1 Units / 5.94% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 50-42 against the Run Line (+15.8 Units / 14.93% ROI).
- 57-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 6.47% ROI
- 47-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.05 Units / 10.09% ROI
- 34-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -17.84% ROI
Orioles vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Orioles vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Austin Hays (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Orioles vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Orioles vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .283 (101 Total Bases / 357 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .388 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (466/1,036) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .067 (2-for-30) against Justin Steele this month (1 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed an OBP of just .125 (32 PA’s) this month (1 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .301 — 98th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Albert Suarez has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .288 — 97th Percentile.
Albert Suarez has allowed an OPS of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .704 — 98th Percentile.
Albert Suarez has allowed an OPS of just .443 (76 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .735 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (11/35) against Albert Suarez in his last two starts — 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Cubs are just 5-181 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Cubs are just 19-36 (.345) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Cubs are just 6-99 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Cubs are 9-5 (.643) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Orioles are 56-43 (.566) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 32-23 (.582) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Orioles are 27-17 (.614) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 15-8 (.652) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Cubs have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
The Cubs are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Cubs are just 52-105 (.331) against the run line (-29.5% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .807 (1,097 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Orioles hitters are slugging .458 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Orioles hitters have 109 HRs in just 2,289 ABs (21.0 AB/HR) against RHP this season — best AB per HR rate in MLB; League Avg: 30.5 AB’s Per HR.
Orioles hitters are slugging .455 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 1.67 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
The Cubs have allowed 2.00 runs per game (12/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.78.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 1.00 (18.0 IP) on the road this month (2 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.58.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 2.61 (234.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Orioles pitchers have walked 249 of 3,723 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Orioles vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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