- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Cubs / Padres TV Channel: TBS | MARQ | PDTV
The Chicago Cubs (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Tuesday, April 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 10:05pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Cubs are 6-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 6-7 ATS.
Cubs vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Ben Brown 0-0, 11.13 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 1-1, 6.43 ERA
Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -120 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | U 8 +100 | -145 |
Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+18.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+14.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+20.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 39 games (+16.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+15.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Joe Musgrove has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 152 games (+16.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 7-3 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 21.75% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 20.15% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.8 Units / 34.55% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -41.82% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 6-7 against the Run Line (+0.62 Units / 4.22% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.81 Units / -11.21% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.43 Units / -3% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -4.16% ROI
Padres vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Morel | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Suzuki | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Busch | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kim | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Hoerner | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Musgrove | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Brown has thrown elevated pitches 56% of the time (15/27) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Ben Brown has a strike rate of 70% (37/53) against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 90th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (10/25) against Ben Brown this season — tied for 10th best among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 92nd Percentile.
Ben Brown has allowed an OPS of .973 (27 PA’s) this season — 13th highest among in MLB; League Avg: .703 — 11th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .643 (18-for-28) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .357 (20-for-56) against Joe Musgrove this season — 5th highest among in MLB; League Avg: .252 — eighth Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .431 (65 PA’s) this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .407 (11-for-27) against Joe Musgrove this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — seventh Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 33-38 (.465) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are 52-29 (.642) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Cubs are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Cubs were 27-4 (.871) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 3-15 (.167) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Padres are just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 15-30 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Cubs are batting .421 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Cubs are batting .291 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Cubs hitters have drawn 44 walks in 317 PA’s (14%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .811 (92 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Padres hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an OBP of .404 (89 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Cubs pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers had an ERA of 3.73 (1441.0 IP) in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Padres vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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