- The Cubs are +105 favorites vs the Phillies
- Cubs vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Phillies TV Channel: MARQ | NSPA | WCAU | MLBN
The Chicago Cubs (-102) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-118) on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 41-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 31-35 ATS.
Cubs vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Ben Brown 3-4, 5.41 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 5-2, 4.48 ERA
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 +100 | -102 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -120 | -118 |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Matt Shaw has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+9.40 Units / 157% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 65 games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games (+8.82 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+6.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+6.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games (+10.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+8.04 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+7.48 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.11 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 44 games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 36-31 against the Run Line (+5.52 Units / 6.68% ROI).
- 41-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.1 Units / 10.22% ROI
- 35-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 6.52% ROI
- 28-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.8 Units / -14.47% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 31-35 against the Run Line (-7.5 Units / -8.97% ROI).
- 38-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 30-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -12.86% ROI
- 36-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 4.42% ROI
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -295 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Ben Brown (CHC) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (180/329) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Ben Brown has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.129 (35 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .573 — first Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (225/461) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (708/1,918) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .309 (67-for-217) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — second Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .372 (242 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 45% (54 SO in 120 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 88th Percentile.
34% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — fifth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are 48-13 (.787) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Cubs are 63-39 (.618) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Cubs are 2-20 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 8-15 (.348) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Phillies are 114-25 (.820) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Phillies are 33-120 (.216) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Phillies are 20-62 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .484 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .815 (1,445 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Cubs are batting .398 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .217 (162 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .404 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .342 (73 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 80 double plays in 1,126 opportunities (7%) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers walked 444 of 6,050 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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