- The Cubs are -110 favorites vs the Reds
- Cubs vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cubs / Reds TV Channel: MARQ | BSOH
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Monday, July 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Cubs are 51-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 58-47 ATS.
Cubs vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 7-5, 2.98 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Carson Spiers 3-2, 3.83 ERA
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -120 | -110 |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 +100 | -110 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 37 games (+22.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 away games (+16.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+10.30 Units / 69% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.25 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 19 games (+13.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- Austin Slater has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+14.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.75 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 89 games (+13.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+10.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 87 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 55 games (+4.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 52-55 against the Run Line (-15.1 Units / -10.13% ROI).
- 51-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -4.2% ROI
- 45-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.9 Units / -16.87% ROI
- 59-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 8.33% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 58-47 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 3.91% ROI).
- 50-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -5.2% ROI
- 46-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -13.26% ROI
- 55-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 3.61% ROI
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Isaac Paredes (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Isaac Paredes (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Isaac Paredes (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Spiers (CIN) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 34 of 710 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 86th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed three-ball counts to 7% of batters they faced (15/202 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 13 of 531 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .429 (285 Total Bases / 664 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — eighth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carson Spiers has allowed three-ball counts to 12% of batters they faced (23/200 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
79% of Carson Spiers’ non-fastball strikeouts are located away this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 98th Percentile.
Carson Spiers has walked 9 of 200 batters (4%) this season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
44% of Carson Spiers’ called strikeouts are elevated this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 7-103 (.064) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Cubs are just 118-9 (.929) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Cubs are just 39-9 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Cubs are just 12-172 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 28-34 (.452) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 11-18 (.379) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Reds are 109-4 (.965) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
25% of Cubs hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have 95 extra-base hits out of 294 total hits (just 32%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Cubs are batting .275 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .306 over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .110 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters are slugging just .145 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Reds are 32-15 (.681) against the run line (22.8% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Reds hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 86 of 949 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 770 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since last season (6,698 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Reds pitchers have walked 218 of 2,369 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Shane Greene (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Luis Vazquez (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Yency Almonte (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Keegan Thompson (Chicago Cubs): Ribs, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Wicks (Chicago Cubs): Oblique, 60-Day IL
- Hayden Wesneski (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Luke Little (Chicago Cubs): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 60-Day IL
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