- The Cubs are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Cubs vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Friday, May 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH, OH.
This season, the Cubs are 30-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 28-23 ATS.
Cubs vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 4-2, 2.96 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 4-2, 2.35 ERA
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -110 | -120 |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -110 | +100 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 away games (+16.20 Units / 162% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+15.30 Units / 76% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+12.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Matthew Boyd has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Walks Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 28 games (+15.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+4.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 26-24 against the Run Line (+1.77 Units / 2.84% ROI).
- 30-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 8.76% ROI
- 29-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.55 Units / 17.6% ROI
- 18-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.2 Units / -25.47% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 28-23 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.36% ROI).
- 25-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -7.4% ROI
- 18-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -30.12% ROI
- 32-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 21.23% ROI
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd (CHC) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Boyd has thrown his changeup 36% of the time (58/162) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .342 (13-for-38) against Matthew Boyd with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — second Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has thrown his changeup 36% of the time (58/162) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .206 (22-for-107) against Matthew Boyd with two-strikes this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 10th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has thrown 173 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has a strike rate of 71% (516/722) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (90/223) against Hunter Greene in non-two strike counts this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .174 (44-for-253) against Hunter Greene in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are 15-5 (.750) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Cubs are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Cubs are 43-12 (.782) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Cubs are 11-2 (.846) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .618.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-82 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Reds are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Reds were just 4-63 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .485 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Cubs are batting .423 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .822 (1,005 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .830 (453 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters are slugging just .154 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs allowed 3.41 runs per game (276/81) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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