- The Braves are -170 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Braves TV Channel: DBTV | FDSO | FDSE | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-160) on Thursday, June 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 30-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 25-34 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 7-4, 5.11 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 3-4, 3.78 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -105 | +135 |
| Braves | -1.5 +130 | U 9 -115 | -160 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+13.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+12.80 Units / 142% ROI)
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+19.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Walks Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+14.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+10.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.07 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+2.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+1.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 28-33 against the Run Line (-10.21 Units / -12.96% ROI).
- 30-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -10.94% ROI
- 28-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -6.22% ROI
- 29-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -2.63% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 25-34 against the Run Line (-8.72 Units / -12.54% ROI).
- 27-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.53 Units / -21.79% ROI
- 22-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.5 Units / -21.76% ROI
- 33-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +9 Units / 13.76% ROI
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .545 (66 Total Bases / 121 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — first Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .462 (200 Total Bases / 433 ABs) on non-fastballs since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .351 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (63/199) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .408 (51 Total Bases / 125 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .706 (12 GB hits out of 17 GBs) against Grant Holmes with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (12-for-93) against Grant Holmes when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.
Grant Holmes has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Grant Holmes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .237 (22 Total Bases / 93 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are 60-50 (.545) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Diamondbacks are 25-7 (.781) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Diamondbacks were 67-15 (.807) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Diamondbacks are just 23-7 (.767) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .863.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 105-87 (.547) on the road since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Braves were 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Braves are 127-91 (.583) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Braves were 24-16 (.600) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Phillies (12th best runs allowed) today.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .337 (6,284 PA’s) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .346 (1,983 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a in-zone of just 48% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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