- The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Phillies TV Channel: DBTV | NSPA
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-125) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 17-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 16-16 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 5-1, 2.83 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 0-5, 5.40 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -210 | O 9.5 -102 | +105 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +160 | U 9.5 -118 | -125 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+18.00 Units / 450% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+17.80 Units / 356% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.45 Units / 56% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+3.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 16-16 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -0.76% ROI).
- 17-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -1.72% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 4.7% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -13.74% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 16-16 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -6.89% ROI).
- 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -1.16% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -10.51% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 1.42% ROI
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .130 against Brandon Pfaadt with RISP this season — ninth best among qualified SPs– 90th Percentile. Opponents batted .300 (45-for-150) against him with RISP last season — fourth worst among qualified SPs– seventh Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .305 (61-for-200) against Brandon Pfaadt since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .538 (35 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — fifth Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has walked 4% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (247/731) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (40/118) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 48% (266/553) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are just 13-3 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .920.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-4 (.714) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Diamondbacks are just 148-21 (.876) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Diamondbacks were 67-15 (.807) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 12-131 (.084) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Phillies are just 15-23 (.395) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 15% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .277 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .337 (6,284 PA’s) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Phillies are batting .270 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have 253 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Batters facing the Phillies pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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