- First-year manager Stephen Vogt will lead Cleveland for the 2024 season.
- The Guardians have a win total of 79.5 after winning 76 games last year.
After winning the division in 2022, the Cleveland Guardians fell to third place in the AL Central last season with a 76-86 record.
MLB betting markets project the Guardians to remain below .500 in a weak division this season, but will a change in leadership help them surprise? Stephen Vogt, who last played for the Athletics in 2022, replaces longtime manager Terry Francona this season.
Guardians Futures Odds
Win Total: 79.5
AL Central: +375
AL Pennant: +3000
World Series: +6600
The Guardians’ MLB odds are much different than they were last spring.
Cleveland was +2500 to win the World Series and +125 to win the division in the preseason last year. The Guardians had a win total of 86.5 before finishing below that mark by 10.5 games.
This season marks the second time Cleveland has had a win total below 80 since 2014. The Guardians won 92 games with an over/under of 76.5 in 2022.
Guardians Offseason Moves
From a personnel standpoint, Cleveland didn’t do much in the offseason, making minor improvements on the edges.
Additions
| Player | Pos. |
|---|---|
| Scott Barlow | RHP |
| Carlos Carrasco | RHP |
| Estevan Florial | OF |
| Austin Hedges | C |
| Ben Lively | RHP |
| Deyvison De Los Santos | 3B |
Departures
| Player | Pos. |
|---|---|
| Oscar Gonzalez | OF |
| Cody Morris | RHP |
| Cal Quantrill | RHP |
| Enyel De Los Santos | RHP |
The significant change in the winter came in the manager position, as Cleveland tabbed Vogt to replace Francona.
Francona had an impressive 23-year career with three different ballclubs, including the last 11 seasons with Cleveland. He netted 1,950 wins as a skipper, 921 of which occurred with his final team.
After one season as Seattle’s bullpen coach, Vogt, 39, signed a three-year contract with the Guardians. This will be his first manager job.
Guardians 2024 Betting Prediction
Prediction: Stephen Vogt to win AL Manager of the Year (+1000)
Projections are much higher on the Guardians than the latest baseball odds.
PECOTA has Cleveland finishing with 82 wins, behind Minnesota’s 90.1 victories. FanGraphs has the Guardians posting an 80-82 record.
If projections are correct, Cleveland is undervalued in the market. Vogt’s odds of being AL’s Manager of the Year offer the most upside in that scenario.
Francona won this award twice with the Guardians, one as recently as 2022. I still think there is a downside to the manager switch, but the narrative case will be on Vogt’s side if Cleveland does bounce back this year.
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2024 Guardians Schedule
Date Matchup 3/28/24 Guardians at Athletics 3/31/24 Guardians at Athletics 4/2/24 Guardians at Mariners 4/4/24 Guardians at Twins 4/7/24 Guardians at Twins 5/17/24 Twins at Guardians 5/18/24 Twins at Guardians 5/19/24 Twins at Guardians 5/20/24 Mets at Guardians 5/21/24 Mets at Guardians 5/22/24 Mets at Guardians 5/24/24 Guardians at Angels 5/25/24 Guardians at Angels 5/26/24 Guardians at Angels 5/27/24 Guardians at Rockies 5/28/24 Guardians at Rockies 5/29/24 Guardians at Rockies 5/31/24 Nationals at Guardians 6/1/24 Nationals at Guardians 6/2/24 Nationals at Guardians 6/4/24 Royals at Guardians 6/7/24 Guardians at Marlins 6/8/24 Guardians at Marlins 6/9/24 Guardians at Marlins 3/29/24 Guardians at Athletics 3/30/24 Guardians at Athletics 4/1/24 Guardians at Mariners 4/10/24 White Sox at Guardians 4/12/24 Yankees at Guardians 4/13/24 Yankees at Guardians 4/14/24 Yankees at Guardians 4/15/24 Guardians at Red Sox 4/16/24 Guardians at Red Sox 4/17/24 Guardians at Red Sox 4/18/24 Guardians at Red Sox 4/19/24 Athletics at Guardians 4/20/24 Athletics at Guardians 4/21/24 Athletics at Guardians 4/23/24 Red Sox at Guardians 4/24/24 Red Sox at Guardians 4/25/24 Red Sox at Guardians 4/26/24 Guardians at Braves 4/27/24 Guardians at Braves 4/28/24 Guardians at Braves 4/3/24 Guardians at Mariners 4/30/24 Guardians at Astros 4/6/24 Guardians at Twins 4/8/24 White Sox at Guardians 4/9/24 White Sox at Guardians 5/1/24 Guardians at Astros 5/10/24 Guardians at White Sox 5/11/24 Guardians at White Sox 5/12/24 Guardians at White Sox 5/13/24 Guardians at Rangers 5/14/24 Guardians at Rangers 5/15/24 Guardians at Rangers 5/2/24 Guardians at Astros 5/3/24 Angels at Guardians 5/4/24 Angels at Guardians 5/5/24 Angels at Guardians 5/6/24 Tigers at Guardians 5/7/24 Tigers at Guardians 5/8/24 Tigers at Guardians 5/9/24 Guardians at White Sox 6/11/24 Guardians at Reds 6/12/24 Guardians at Reds 6/14/24 Guardians at Blue Jays 6/15/24 Guardians at Blue Jays 6/16/24 Guardians at Blue Jays 6/18/24 Mariners at Guardians 6/19/24 Mariners at Guardians 6/20/24 Mariners at Guardians 6/21/24 Blue Jays at Guardians 6/22/24 Blue Jays at Guardians 6/23/24 Blue Jays at Guardians 6/24/24 Guardians at Orioles 6/25/24 Guardians at Orioles 6/26/24 Guardians at Orioles 6/27/24 Guardians at Royals 6/28/24 Guardians at Royals 6/29/24 Guardians at Royals 6/30/24 Guardians at Royals 6/5/24 Royals at Guardians 6/6/24 Royals at Guardians 7/10/24 Guardians at Tigers 7/11/24 Guardians at Tigers 7/12/24 Guardians at Rays 7/13/24 Guardians at Rays 7/14/24 Guardians at Rays 7/19/24 Padres at Guardians 7/2/24 White Sox at Guardians 7/20/24 Padres at Guardians 7/21/24 Padres at Guardians 7/22/24 Tigers at Guardians 7/23/24 Tigers at Guardians 7/24/24 Tigers at Guardians 7/25/24 Tigers at Guardians 7/26/24 Guardians at Phillies 7/27/24 Guardians at Phillies 7/28/24 Guardians at Phillies 7/29/24 Guardians at Tigers 7/3/24 White Sox at Guardians 7/30/24 Guardians at Tigers 7/4/24 White Sox at Guardians 7/5/24 Giants at Guardians 7/6/24 Giants at Guardians 7/7/24 Giants at Guardians 7/8/24 Guardians at Tigers 7/9/24 Guardians at Tigers 8/1/24 Orioles at Guardians 8/10/24 Guardians at Twins 8/11/24 Guardians at Twins 8/12/24 Cubs at Guardians 8/13/24 Cubs at Guardians 8/14/24 Cubs at Guardians 8/16/24 Guardians at Brewers 8/17/24 Guardians at Brewers 8/18/24 Guardians at Brewers 8/2/24 Orioles at Guardians 8/20/24 Guardians at Yankees 8/21/24 Guardians at Yankees 8/22/24 Guardians at Yankees 8/23/24 Rangers at Guardians 8/24/24 Rangers at Guardians 8/25/24 Rangers at Guardians 8/26/24 Royals at Guardians 8/27/24 Royals at Guardians 8/28/24 Royals at Guardians 8/3/24 Orioles at Guardians 8/30/24 Pirates at Guardians 8/31/24 Pirates at Guardians 8/4/24 Orioles at Guardians 8/5/24 D-backs at Guardians 8/6/24 D-backs at Guardians 8/7/24 D-backs at Guardians 8/9/24 Guardians at Twins 9/1/24 Pirates at Guardians 9/10/24 Guardians at White Sox 9/11/24 Guardians at White Sox 9/12/24 Rays at Guardians 9/13/24 Rays at Guardians 9/14/24 Rays at Guardians 9/15/24 Rays at Guardians 9/16/24 Twins at Guardians 9/17/24 Twins at Guardians 9/18/24 Twins at Guardians 9/19/24 Twins at Guardians 9/2/24 Guardians at Royals 9/20/24 Guardians at Cardinals 9/21/24 Guardians at Cardinals 9/22/24 Guardians at Cardinals 9/24/24 Reds at Guardians 9/25/24 Reds at Guardians 9/27/24 Astros at Guardians 9/28/24 Astros at Guardians 9/29/24 Astros at Guardians 9/3/24 Guardians at Royals 9/4/24 Guardians at Royals 9/6/24 Guardians at Dodgers 9/7/24 Guardians at Dodgers 9/8/24 Guardians at Dodgers 9/9/24 Guardians at White Sox -
2023 MLB Team ATS Records
Team ATS Record ATS Win Pct. Reds 97-65 .599 Orioles 96-66 .593 Dodgers 92-70 .568 Rangers 88-74 .543 Tigers 87-75 .537 Diamondbacks 86-76 .531 Rays 86-76 .531 Nationals 86-76 .531 Pirates 84-78 .519 Braves 83-79 .512 White Sox 82-80 .506 Twins 82-80 .506 Padres 82-80 .506 Cubs 81-81 .500 Astros 81-81 .500 Guardians 80-82 .494 Rockies 80-82 .494 Brewers 80-82 .494 Yankees 79-83 .488 Red Sox 77-85 .475 Athletics 77-85 .475 Mariners 77-85 .475 Cardinals 77-85 .475 Angels 75-87 .463 Blue Jays 75-87 .463 Marlins 74-88 .457 Mets 74-88 .457 Giants 72-90 .444 Phillies 71-91 .438 Royals 69-93 .426 -
2023 MLB Team Over/Under Records
Team Over-Under Record Over Pct. Under Pct. Braves 94-69-3 .577 .423 Dodgers 90-67-8 .573 .427 Rays 89-69-6 .563 .437 Rangers 93-75-11 .554 .446 Pirates 87-71-4 .551 .449 Athletics 84-70-8 .546 .455 Astros 91-77-5 .542 .458 Angels 82-70-10 .540 .461 Twins 85-78-5 .522 .479 Orioles 80-74-11 .520 .481 Mariners 80-75-7 .516 .484 Red Sox 81-77-4 .513 .487 Cubs 80-77-5 .510 .490 Royals 79-77-6 .506 .494 Tigers 78-78-6 .500 .500 Nationals 77-79-6 .494 .506 Reds 79-82-1 .491 .509 Phillies 79-83-13 .488 .512 Cardinals 76-80-6 .487 .513 Marlins 74-84-6 .468 .532 Brewers 73-85-6 .462 .538 White Sox 71-83-8 .461 .539 Rockies 74-87-1 .460 .540 Yankees 71-84-7 .458 .542 Diamondbacks 78-93-8 .456 .544 Blue Jays 70-84-10 .455 .546 Padres 67-86-9 .438 .562 Mets 67-88-7 .432 .568 Guardians 68-91-3 .428 .572 Giants 67-91-4 .424 .576
2024 MLB Team Previews & Predictions
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