Pittsburgh Pirates 2024 Betting Preview: Futures Odds & Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t posted a winning season since 2018. They haven’t finished higher than fourth in the National League Central since 2016. 

The team’s last playoff berth came in 2015, and its last postseason victory occurred in 2013.

But many of those streaks could fall this season, with Pittsburgh posing as an MLB odds dark horse in a vulnerable division.

Pirates Futures Odds

Win Total: 75.5
NL Central: +1300
NL Pennant: +8000
World Series: +15000

MLB betting markets still view the Pirates as the No. 5 team in the NL Central, but their win total is just 11 games behind the division front-runner in the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pittsburgh’s win total hasn’t been this high since 2018, when the team won 69 games to finish under its preseason over/under of 77.5 games. The Pirates won 76 games to clear last year’s win total by nine victories.

Pirates Offseason Moves

After going 76-86 last year, the Pirates signed a trio of left-handed pitchers to help them make a strong push up the NL Central standings.

Additions

Departures

Pérez and Gonzales will slot in right behind Mitch Keller at the top of the rotation.

Pérez pitched in 67 games for the Texas Rangers over the last two years, recording a 3.54 ERA in 338 total innings. Gonzales joins Cincinnati’s staff after six seasons with the Seattle Mariners, where he made 141 starts and spun a 4.02 ERA.

Chapman is counting on a rebound showing as a high-leverage reliever with the Pirates, following some lackluster playoff results with the Rangers.

Pirates 2024 Betting Prediction

Prediction: Oneil Cruz to finish with more home runs than Elly De La Cruz (+100)

There are many head-to-head home run matchups in the latest MLB betting markets, including a particularly intriguing battle between Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds.

Both players have plenty of hype, with the Reds infielder bursting on the scene as a rookie last year.

But De La Cruz hit just 13 homers, and the underlying metrics suggest that the switch hitter is much better as a left-handed hitter than from the right side. The difference in swing speed is 2 miles per hour.

As for Pittsburgh’s Cruz, he played just nine games last year due to injury. He hit 17 home runs in 87 games and offers plenty of power as a 6-foot-7 shortstop. Cruz ranked in the top 9% of the league in average exit velocity in 2023.

There are question marks for both talented young players, but Cruz offers more power upside and is +100 compared to a -130 value for De La Cruz. THE BAT X projects 24 homers for the former and 19 for the latter.

2024 MLB Team Previews & Predictions