- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Nationals
- Guardians vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Nationals TV Channel: GDTV | MAS2
The Cleveland Guardians (-118) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-102) on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:55pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Guardians are 20-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 18-17 ATS.
Guardians vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 2-3, 4.79 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-1, 4.08 ERA
Guardians vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -120 | -118 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -170 | U 9.5 +100 | -102 |
Guardians vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+23.00 Units / 256% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+14.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+16.90 Units / 169% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 16 away games (+2.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 17-17 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -7.68% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 17.52% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 1.56% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -6.37% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 18-17 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.81% ROI).
- 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.96% ROI
- 17-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -2.53% ROI
- 17-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -3.02% ROI
Nationals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Nationals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Call (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (4/62) against Ben Lively with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (35/112) against Ben Lively this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (4/62) against Ben Lively with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (37/110) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (244/631) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 20% (102/502) against Jake Irvin in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (64/173) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 87-3 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians are just 4-74 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Nationals are 2-18 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Nationals are just 52-86 (.377) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Guardians (14th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 48-160 (.231) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since the 2023 season (479/13,268) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .220 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
More MLB Reading:
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