- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Reds
- Guardians vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | GDTV
The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+105) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH, OH.
This season, the Guardians are 25-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 24-21 ATS.
Guardians vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 3-3, 3.86 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Brady Singer 4-2, 5.01 ERA
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -115 | -125 |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | +105 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+8.65 Units / 144% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+11.90 Units / 238% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 37% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+6.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.10 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.30 Units / 29% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+2.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games (+1.70 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 22-21 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -3.93% ROI).
- 25-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.5 Units / 14.97% ROI
- 21-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 1.17% ROI
- 19-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -8.29% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 24-21 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -4.2% ROI).
- 21-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -10.59% ROI
- 18-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -21.16% ROI
- 26-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.05 Units / 12.14% ROI
Reds vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -450 |
Reds vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Reds vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer (CIN) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (29/121) against Tanner Bibee with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of .707 (41 Total Bases / 58 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .423 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (2-for-20) against Tanner Bibee on low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .272 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 13% (17/127) against Tanner Bibee this season — 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer threw his slider 58% of the time (470/813) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer threw his slider 44% of the time (726/1,643) vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.312 (21 Total Bases / 16 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .422 — 0 Percentile.
Brady Singer has walked 10% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 92-3 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 21-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-80 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Reds are just 6-18 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Guardians are batting .415 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .344.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Guardians pitchers this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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