- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Guardians / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | GDTV | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Sunday, May 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH, OH.
This season, the Guardians are 25-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 26-21 ATS.
Guardians vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 2-4, 4.78 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 2-0, 2.10 ERA
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -210 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +160 | U 9 -105 | -125 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+10.15 Units / 127% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Will Benson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+11.70 Units / 292% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Walks Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andrew Abbott has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+3.79 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+3.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 37 games (+2.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 22-23 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -7.03% ROI).
- 25-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 9.82% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -3.26% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -3.91% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 26-21 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.98% ROI).
- 23-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -6.78% ROI
- 18-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -24.46% ROI
- 28-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.05 Units / 15.45% ROI
Reds vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Reds vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has a in-zone of 51% (417/812) in two strike counts since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .062 (2-for-32) against Luis Ortiz’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .227 — 98th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 29 ABs ending on a two-strike fastball from Luis Ortiz. — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 30.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (21/103) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (13/55) against Andrew Abbott this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last eight games dating back to August 12nd, 2024 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (29/147) against Andrew Abbott on sliders since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 92-3 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians are 103-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 30-2 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .808.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 14-29 (.326) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-18 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .294 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Guardians have an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 54% in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters have struck out in 36% of it’s PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Guardians pitchers this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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