- The Guardians are -102 favorites vs the Twins
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: GDTV | TWTV
The Cleveland Guardians (-102) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-118) on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 25-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 28-19 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 3-2, 4.36 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 2-3, 4.08 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -120 | -102 |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 +100 | -118 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 102% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+13.05 Units / 130% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+12.60 Units / 140% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+4.79 Units / 9% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+14.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games (+14.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games (+13.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 58% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 22-24 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -9.59% ROI).
- 25-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 7.76% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -5.28% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -1.86% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 28-19 against the Run Line (+10.6 Units / 17.88% ROI).
- 26-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 2.51% ROI
- 16-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.8 Units / -28.52% ROI
- 28-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.5 Units / 20.35% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Angel Martínez (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -118 | 5.5 -110 |
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -185 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has allowed an OBP of .457 (92 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .303 — 0 Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 13% of right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed an OPS of .994 (92 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .692 — second Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed a batting average of .375 vs right-handed batters (second worst)– first Percentile and just .181 vs left-handed batters this season (ninth best among non-qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has a strikeout rate of just 15% (9 SO in 59 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (9/71) against Chris Paddack this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has struck out just 13% (12/92) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Chris Paddack has a first-pitch strike rate of 81% (39/48) over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 92-3 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians are 103-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 1-86 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins were just 32-46 (.410) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Royals (sixth best runs allowed) today.
The Twins are 74-30 (.712) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .625.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .295 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,910 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging 1.064 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .583.
Twins hitters struck out 380 times in 1,509 PA’s (25%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Twins batted just .241 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 70 double plays in 1,033 opportunities (7%) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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