- The Yankees are -275 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Yankees TV Channel: YES | GDTV | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+225) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-275) on Thursday, June 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY.
This season, the Guardians are 33-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 28-32 ATS.
Guardians vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 1-1, 5.41 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-1, 1.92 ERA
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 +105 | O 8 -105 | +225 |
| Yankees | -1.5 -130 | U 8 -115 | -275 |
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 67.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+15.00 Units / 300% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+16.60 Units / 184% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Walks Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.60 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.15 Units / 119% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.72 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 60 games (+6.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 32-28 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.6% ROI).
- 33-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 10.34% ROI
- 27-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -7.92% ROI
- 30-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.37% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 28-32 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -5.19% ROI).
- 37-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 4.45% ROI
- 25-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -16.31% ROI
- 33-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.67 Units / 8.54% ROI
Yankees vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -220 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Yankees vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Angel Martínez (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Yankees vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Yankees vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (NYY) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
| Slade Cecconi (ARI) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Slade Cecconi has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (16 Total Bases / 16 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .381 — first Percentile.
Slade Cecconi had an ERA of 6.66 (77.0 IP)in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.97 — first Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed an OPS of 1.500 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .699 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .438 (7-for-16) against Slade Cecconi when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .250 — first Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (113/183) against Max Fried in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (153/254) against Max Fried in two-strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .188 (15-for-80) against Max Fried on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 59% (286/483) against Max Fried in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 97-3 (.970) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Guardians are 28-6 (.824) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 53-29 (.646) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Guardians (third best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 68-42 (.618) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 90-63 (.588) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season They play the Guardians (third best runs allowed) today.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 54% in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 791 times in 4,186 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
More MLB Reading:
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