- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-145) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (+120) on Sunday, May 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 29-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 28-24 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-0, 7.05 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Colton Gordon 0-0, 5.59 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -105 | -145 |
| Astros | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -115 | +120 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Leonardo Rivas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+19.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+17.70 Units / 253% ROI)
- Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 51% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 away games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+10.42 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 26-25 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 1.89% ROI).
- 29-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 3.63% ROI
- 27-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 4.56% ROI
- 22-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.02 Units / -14.25% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 28-24 against the Run Line (+5.77 Units / 8.64% ROI).
- 27-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -5.14% ROI
- 21-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.95 Units / -19.18% ROI
- 29-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.75 Units / 10.02% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Colton Gordon (HOU) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 67% of the time (629/933) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 38% (80/209) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 10th Percentile.
Luis Castillo walked 23 of 267 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 17th Percentile.
Luis Castillo allowed a slugging percentage of .415 (154 Total Bases / 371 ABs) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — third Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colton Gordon has a strike rate of 71% (59/83) over the past seven days (1 game) — 3rd highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (10/79) against Colton Gordon this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (6/25) against Colton Gordon this month (2 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Colton Gordon has a in-zone of 62% (104/168) this month (2 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 99th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 3-19 (.136) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Mariners are 21-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Mariners are 96-1 (.990) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 1-79 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Astros are 98-72 (.576) after a loss since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Astros are 80-13 (.860) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .209 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters struck out just 324 times in 1,678 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .264 (1,902 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers walked 544 of 6,019 batters (9%) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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