- The Mariners are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Mariners vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mariners / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | RTNW | MLBN
The Seattle Mariners (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Wednesday, July 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Mariners are 57-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 49-57 ATS.
Mariners vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 8-7, 2.88 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 10-5, 5.31 ERA
Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -115 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -105 | +100 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 14 away games (+17.10 Units / 122% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 away games (+10.85 Units / 68% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.05 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 32 games (+21.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+14.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jamie Westbrook has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+4.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 76 games (+4.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+15.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 106 games (+6.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 49-60 against the Run Line (-15.7 Units / -11.32% ROI).
- 57-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -5.25% ROI
- 46-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.3 Units / -15.42% ROI
- 59-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.45 Units / 7.08% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 49-57 against the Run Line (-15.5 Units / -11.04% ROI).
- 56-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.11% ROI
- 53-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.56% ROI
- 48-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -10 Units / -8.57% ROI
Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| George Kirby (SEA) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 5 of 198 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 21 of 691 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has allowed an OBP of just .248 (472 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 33 of 1,277 batters (3%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (88/488) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 172 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (26/70) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (168/281) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (31/85) against Brayan Bello this month (5 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 105-19 (.847) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Mariners are 57-7 (.891) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Mariners are 79-45 (.637) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Mariners are 194-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are just 11-15 (.423) after a home win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Red Sox are just 31-31 (.500) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Red Sox are 48-10 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Red Sox are just 52-172 (.232) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .204 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Mariners are batting just .178 at home this month (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Mariners are batting just .202 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .218 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 354 strikeouts in 1,244 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .558 at home this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Red Sox are batting .250 with two outs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Red Sox are batting .263 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 22% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.65 (492.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Mariners pitchers have walked 146 of 2,423 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .278 (3,884 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 287 of 4,032 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox have allowed 8.36 runs per game (92/11) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.57.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.68 (101.0 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.33 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.76.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners): Thigh, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Achilles, 60-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners): Ankle, 10-Day IL
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