- The Astros are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Marlins are 32-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 47-45 ATS.
Marlins vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-3, 5.49 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Shawn Dubin 1-1, 5.47 ERA
Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 +100 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -185 |
Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 74 games (+19.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 away games (+17.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+2.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 34 games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+8.50 Units / 61% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 41-51 against the Run Line (-24.71 Units / -20.22% ROI).
- 32-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -21.38% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 2.37% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -9.95% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 47-45 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 2.52% ROI).
- 48-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -6.36% ROI
- 36-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.45 Units / -21.35% ROI
- 53-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.45 Units / 13.17% ROI
Astros vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Astros vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
| Jake Bloss (HOU) | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roddery Munoz has walked 24 of 195 batters (12%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .550 (93 Total Bases / 169 ABs) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .400 — first Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed an OPS of .889 (195 PA’s) this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .706 — fifth Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has walked 4 of 20 batters (20%) this month (1 games) — tied for 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Dubin has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (60/129) this season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (46/97) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has a strike rate of just 58% (134/229) against right-handed batters this season — 5th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has a strike rate of just 57% (110/192) with runners in scoring position this season — 6th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — seventh Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Marlins are just 8-11 (.421) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Marlins are just 27-20 (.574) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are 196-20 (.907) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Astros are 53-33 (.616) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Astros are 244-172 (.587) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .275 (1,093 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 814 strikeouts in 4,634 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.59 (1826.2 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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