MLB Manager of the Year Odds 2026: AL & NL Favorites, Predictions

Stephen Vogt and Pat Murphy have become used to winning Manager of the Year awards to start their respective careers.

The Cleveland Guardians’ Vogt won the American League Manager of the Year award, while the Milwaukee Brewers’ Murphy secured the same honor in the National League. This comes after they won the same trophies in their debut campaigns in 2024.

In addition, their selections continued an impressive streak for this award. Since 2012, all 28 Manager of the Year winners have reached the playoffs. Of that group, 22 led teams that had missed the postseason the previous year.

Will that streak continue in 2026? Get the latest MLB odds and predictions for the Manager of the Year races:

AL Manager of the Year Odds 2026: Favorites

Who Will Win the AL Manager of the Year Award in 2026?

Seattle Mariners skipper Dan Wilson is the betting favorite to win the American League Manager of the Year award. At +550, he has an implied probability of 15.38%.

Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider, who opened as a co-favorite with Wilson, has fallen to fifth in this race.

I thought both managers had a strong case last year, but I’d be surprised if they get much credit with higher expectations in 2026. The Mariners and Blue Jays are viewed among the American League favorites after reaching last year’s ALCS and clinching the top two seeds in the league.

At the very least, Seattle and Toronto would have to replicate last year’s results for either manager to win this award. There is only downside risk for backing either option at the top of this market.

In addition, Stephen Vogt was initially viewed as one of the top contenders for another AL Manager of the Year award. But I’m skeptical of his case, as no manager has won this award in three straight seasons.

Kevin Cash is the only other back-to-back winner in the AL, accomplishing the feat with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 and 2021.

It took a special storyline for Vogt to win a second straight Manager of the Year award. His Guardians erased a 15.5-game deficit to win the AL Central over the Detroit Tigers, marking the largest deficit a team has overcome to win a division since 1969.

Had it not been for that epic comeback, someone else would have won this award. Four different managers received at least one first-place vote, led by 17 for Vogt. Schneider earned 10 first-place votes, followed by Wilson (two) and the Boston Red Sox’s Alex Cora (one).

The voting results after Vogt show that managers on teams that missed the playoffs the previous season still have an advantage. The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Red Sox all missed the postseason in 2024.

For 2026, these are the teams with the best chance of returning to the postseason after missing it last year:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Houston Astros
• Texas Rangers

Of these options, I prefer the value on Royals manager Matt Quatraro. If he guides Kansas City back to the postseason, I think he will get credit for a three-year run. The Royals haven’t had a winning record in three straight seasons since clinching the 2015 World Series.

There was an argument for Quatraro securing this award in 2024, when the Royals made the playoffs after losing 106 games in 2023. So, I could see Quatraro getting double credit if the Royals make the playoffs again.

Kansas City also has a path to winning its first division title in 11 years. The Detroit Tigers are the clear favorites, but the Royals project to be their primary challengers. PECOTA actually projects Kansas City to win the division.

Quatraro’s Manager of the Year value was my favorite preseason future in the spring, especially at his opening 25/1 price tag. And I still like him at his current odds.

Prediction: Matt Quatraro

NL Manager of the Year Odds 2026: Favorites

Who Will Win the NL Manager of the Year Award in 2026?

Pittsburgh Pirates skipper Don Kelly is the new betting favorite to win the NL Manager of the Year award. At +450, Kelly has an implied probability of 18.18%.

This market continues to adjust based on the early results of the regular season. Kelly became the front-runner in early April. Walt Weiss of the Atlanta Braves and Carlos Mendoza of the New York Mets were co-favorites after one week of the regular season.

Both skippers passed Chicago Cubs’ Craig Counsell, who began as the preseason favorite for the third straight year. For the last two seasons, Counsell has lost this award and the National League Central to the manager of his former team.

Pat Murphy has +1000 odds to win a third consecutive NL Manager of the Year award. Considering the Brewers had lower preseason expectations once again, I could see a scenario in which he gets credit for winning another division title.

Still, I’d prefer to target a manager of a team that didn’t make the playoffs last year. For the 2026 season, that list should include:

• New York Mets
• Atlanta Braves
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• San Francisco Giants
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Miami Marlins

Compared to the AL, playoff spots in the NL are more difficult to obtain. The Dodgers essentially have a postseason berth locked up.

Weiss is a solid contender. He was promoted from bench coach this offseason to replace Brian Snitker. If he guides the Braves back to the playoffs (and perhaps a NL East crown), Weiss will be in the mix for Manager of the Year.

I’m also intrigued by the San Francisco Giants’ new manager, Tony Vitello, who comes from the collegiate ranks at Tennessee. Vitello is the first college coach to move directly to the majors without previous pro experience.

If Vitello can lead the Giants to the postseason for the first time since 2021 in his debut season, he’d have an easy case for Manager of the Year. But given the Giants play in the NL West, they have a more difficult path than most.

The Miami Marlins also play in a difficult division, but they are off to a fast start in the NL East. If they can keep it up, Clayton McCullough could have the best value of the bunch.

For a much easier road to the postseason, Kelly has been my favorite target all spring. The Pirates had an active offseason, bringing in multiple hitters to bolster their lineup and support Paul Skenes and a potent pitching staff. It might be just enough to compete in the NL Central.

ATC, a composite projection system at FanGraphs, gives the Pirates a 53.9% chance of making the playoffs in 2026. Considering they haven’t made the postseason since 2015, Kelly might have a stronger chance of winning Manager of the Year than these odds would indicate.

Prediction: Don Kelly

2025 AL Manager of the Year Voting

2025 NL Manager of the Year Voting

List of AL & NL Manager of the Year Winners

Managers With the Most MLB Manager of the Year Awards

Bobby Cox, Buck Showalter, and Tony La Russa are tied for the most awards (four):

Bobby Cox: 4
Buck Showalter: 4
Tony La Russa: 4
Joe Maddon: 3
Lou Piniella: 3
Dusty Baker: 3
Terry Francona: 3
Bob Melvin: 3

Teams With the Most MLB Manager of the Year Awards

The Cleveland Guardians have the most Manager of the Year awards of any team, with six:

Guardians: 6
White Sox: 5
Athletics: 4
Rays: 4
Cubs: 4
Braves: 4
Orioles: 4
Twins: 4
Giants: 4