2024 MLB Manager of the Year Odds: AL & NL Favorites, Predictions

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Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch watches from the dugout in the second inning of a spring training baseball game against the Boston Red Sox in Fort Myers, Fla., Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024.
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm Apr 06, 2024, 8:57 AM
  • The Tigers’ A.J. Hinch is favored to win AL Manager of the Year.
  • The Cubs’ Craig Counsell is the betting favorite in the NL.
  • Every winner since 2012 has made it to the postseason.

The best way to capitalize on correctly picking this year’s surprise MLB teams is to bet on the Manager of the Year market.

Last year, Brandon Hyde (Baltimore Orioles) and Skip Schumaker (Miami Marlins) exceeded expectations to win the AL and NL awards, respectively. They both notched postseason berths, a trend that dates back to 2012 for the last 24 Manager of the Year winners.

MLB odds can’t always tell which managers will overperform, so who will it be in 2024?

AL Manager of the Year Odds: Favorites

A.J. HinchDetroit Tigers+550
Matt QuatraroKansas City Royals+700
Stephen VogtCleveland Guardians+850
Scott ServaisSeattle Mariners+1000
Brandon HydeBaltimore Orioles+1000
Kevin CashTampa Bay Rays+1100
Joe EspadaHouston Astros+1100

Seeing three AL Central managers at the top of this oddsboard makes sense, as the path to success in that division is much more favorable.

With the Minnesota Twins already -115 favorites to win the division, the race for second is wide open. But even a runner-up finish might not be good enough to grab a wild-card spot, as reflected in the playoff odds for those three teams.

  • Guardians: +220 to make playoffs
  • Royals: +400 to make the playoffs
  • Tigers: +180 to make the playoffs

Of the three AL Central teams, I prefer the price on Cleveland’s first-year manager.

Stephen Vogt, who played as recently as 2022, will have a narrative argument, and the Guardians are two years removed from winning this division. His odds have moved from +1000 to +850 since the preseason.

But for better odds, I can bet on Seattle manager Scott Servais, who offers a higher floor and higher upside. The Mariners are -165 to return to the playoffs after not making it last year. 

Voters won’t be looking up preseason odds, but they can fall for a bounce-back season from Seattle.

Most of all, the Mariners have a path to exceed expectations in a big way. 

They have the best rotation in the AL, featuring multiple MLB Cy Young odds favorites. Julio Rodríguez is a popular AL MVP odds prediction.

There is a conceivable path to knocking off the Houston Astros in the AL West or finishing ahead of the reigning world champion Texas Rangers. If one or both happen, Servais will be a serious contender.

Prediction: Scott Servais (+1000)

NL Manager of the Year Odds: Favorites

Craig CounsellChicago Cubs+600
David BellCincinnati Reds+700
Oliver MarmolSt. Louis Cardinals+800
Dave RobertsLos Angeles Dodgers+900
Rob ThomsonPhiladelphia Phillies+900
Mike ShildtSan Diego Padres+900
Brian SnitkerAtlanta Braves+1000

Once again, the central division features the top three favorites. That’s because the NL Central projects to be wide open in 2024, with the top three teams forecasted between 78.9 and 84.5 wins by PECOTA’s preseason numbers.

PECOTA projections:

  • Cardinals 84.5-77.5
  • Cubs 81.4-80.6
  • Reds 78.9-83.1

Based on these numbers, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol offers value as the No. 3 option in this market at +800. He’d also have a strong narrative case after St. Louis lost 91 games last year.

But I prefer just picking the favorite in this market. Craig Counsell is now leading the Chicago Cubs after compiling a 707-625 record with the Milwaukee Brewers from 2015-23.

Despite netting five postseason berths, Counsell has never won this award. He should finally get his credit after leading the Cubs to an NL Central title in his first year with the team.

Prediction: Craig Counsell (+600)

2023 AL Manager of the Year Voting

RankNameTeamVote Pts1st PlaceShare
1Brandon HydeBAL1442796%
2Bruce BochyTEX61341%
3Kevin CashTBR52035%
4Rocco BaldelliMIN805%
5Dusty BakerHOU403%
6John SchneiderTOR101%

2023 NL Manager of the Year Voting

RankNameTeamVote Pts1st PlaceShare
1Skip SchumakerMIA72848%
2Craig CounsellMIL51534%
3Brian SnitkerATL48832%
4Torey LovulloARI42428%
5Dave RobertsLAD41427%
6David BellCIN1319%
7David RossCHC302%

List of AL & NL Manager of the Year Winners

YearAL WinnerNL Winner
1983Tony La RussaTommy Lasorda
1984Sparky AndersonJim Frey
1985Bobby CoxWhitey Herzog
1986John McNamaraHal Lanier
1987Sparky AndersonBuck Rodgers
1988Tony La RussaTommy Lasorda
1989Frank RobinsonDon Zimmer
1990Jeff TorborgJim Leyland
1991Tom KellyBobby Cox
1992Tony La RussaJim Leyland
1993Gene LamontDusty Baker
1994Buck ShowalterFelipe Alou
1995Lou PiniellaDon Baylor
1996Johnny Oates & Joe TorreBruce Bochy
1997Davey JohnsonDusty Baker
1998Joe TorreLarry Dierker
1999Jimy WilliamsJack McKeon
2000Jerry ManuelDusty Baker
2001Lou PiniellaLarry Bowa
2002Mike SciosciaTony La Russa
2003Tony PeñaJack McKeon
2004Buck ShowalterBobby Cox
2005Ozzie GuillénBobby Cox
2006Jim LeylandJoe Girardi
2007Eric WedgeBob Melvin
2008Joe MaddonLou Piniella
2009Mike SciosciaJim Tracy
2010Ron GardenhireBud Black
2011Joe MaddonKirk Gibson
2012Bob MelvinDavey Johnson
2013Terry FranconaClint Hurdle
2014Buck ShowalterMatt Williams
2015Jeff BanisterJoe Maddon
2016Terry FranconaDave Roberts
2017Paul MolitorTorey Lovullo
2018Bob MelvinBrian Snitker
2019Rocco BaldelliMike Shildt
2020Kevin CashDon Mattingly
2021Kevin CashGabe Kapler
2022Terry FranconaBuck Showalter
2023Brandon HydeSkip Schumaker

Managers With Most Manager of the Year Awards

Bobby Cox, Buck Showalter, and Tony La Russa are tied for the most awards (four):

Bobby Cox: 4
Buck Showalter: 4
Tony La Russa: 4
Joe Maddon: 3
Lou Piniella: 3
Dusty Baker: 3
Terry Francona: 3
Bob Melvin: 3

Teams With Most Manager of the Year Awards

The Chicago White Sox have the most awards of any team (five):

White Sox: 5
Athletics: 4
Rays: 4
Cubs: 4
Braves: 4
Orioles: 4
Twins: 4
Giants: 4

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.