2024 MLB Manager of the Year Odds: AL & NL Favorites, Predictions

The best way to capitalize on correctly picking this year’s surprise MLB teams is to bet on the Manager of the Year market.

Last year, Brandon Hyde (Baltimore Orioles) and Skip Schumaker (Miami Marlins) exceeded expectations to win the AL and NL awards, respectively. They both notched postseason berths, a trend that dates back to 2012 for the last 24 Manager of the Year winners.

MLB odds can’t always tell which managers will overperform, so who will it be in 2024?

AL Manager of the Year Odds: Favorites

Seeing three AL Central managers at the top of this oddsboard makes sense, as the path to success in that division is much more favorable.

With the Minnesota Twins already -115 favorites to win the division, the race for second is wide open. But even a runner-up finish might not be good enough to grab a wild-card spot, as reflected in the playoff odds for those three teams.

• Guardians: +220 to make playoffs
• Royals: +400 to make the playoffs
• Tigers: +180 to make the playoffs

Of the three AL Central teams, I prefer the price on Cleveland’s first-year manager.

Stephen Vogt, who played as recently as 2022, will have a narrative argument, and the Guardians are two years removed from winning this division. His odds have moved from +1000 to +850 since the preseason.

But for better odds, I can bet on Seattle manager Scott Servais, who offers a higher floor and higher upside. The Mariners are -165 to return to the playoffs after not making it last year. 

Voters won’t be looking up preseason odds, but they can fall for a bounce-back season from Seattle.

Most of all, the Mariners have a path to exceed expectations in a big way. 

They have the best rotation in the AL, featuring multiple MLB Cy Young odds favorites. Julio Rodríguez is a popular AL MVP odds prediction.

There is a conceivable path to knocking off the Houston Astros in the AL West or finishing ahead of the reigning world champion Texas Rangers. If one or both happen, Servais will be a serious contender.

Prediction: Scott Servais (+1000)

NL Manager of the Year Odds: Favorites

Once again, the central division features the top three favorites. That’s because the NL Central projects to be wide open in 2024, with the top three teams forecasted between 78.9 and 84.5 wins by PECOTA’s preseason numbers.

PECOTA projections:

• Cardinals 84.5-77.5
• Cubs 81.4-80.6
• Reds 78.9-83.1

Based on these numbers, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol offers value as the No. 3 option in this market at +800. He’d also have a strong narrative case after St. Louis lost 91 games last year.

But I prefer just picking the favorite in this market. Craig Counsell is now leading the Chicago Cubs after compiling a 707-625 record with the Milwaukee Brewers from 2015-23.

Despite netting five postseason berths, Counsell has never won this award. He should finally get his credit after leading the Cubs to an NL Central title in his first year with the team.

Prediction: Craig Counsell (+600)

2023 AL Manager of the Year Voting

2023 NL Manager of the Year Voting

List of AL & NL Manager of the Year Winners

Managers With Most Manager of the Year Awards

Bobby Cox, Buck Showalter, and Tony La Russa are tied for the most awards (four):

Bobby Cox: 4
Buck Showalter: 4
Tony La Russa: 4
Joe Maddon: 3
Lou Piniella: 3
Dusty Baker: 3
Terry Francona: 3
Bob Melvin: 3

Teams With Most Manager of the Year Awards

The Chicago White Sox have the most awards of any team (five):

White Sox: 5
Athletics: 4
Rays: 4
Cubs: 4
Braves: 4
Orioles: 4
Twins: 4
Giants: 4