- The Marlins are +100 favorites vs the Athletics
- Marlins vs Athletics Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Marlins / Athletics TV Channel: BSFL | NSCA
The Miami Marlins (+100) visit Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum to take on the Oakland Athletics (-120) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07pm EDT in Oakland, CA.
This season, the Marlins are 9-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Athletics are 19-14 ATS.
Marlins vs Athletics Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-4, 4.27 ERA
- Athletics starting pitcher: Paul Blackburn 2-1, 3.35 ERA
Marlins vs. Athletics Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +170 | O 7 -110 | +100 |
| Athletics | +1.5 -210 | U 7 -110 | -120 |
Marlins vs Athletics Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Athletics will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+11.30 Units / 283% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.30 Units / 75% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.30 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Athletics players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Athletics Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tyler Nevin has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+26.00 Units / 325% ROI)
- Seth Brown has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.D. Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Tyler Nevin has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tyler Nevin has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Athletics Best Bets Today:
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 128 games (+12.88 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 15 games (+11.14 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 53 games at home (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 10-24 against the Run Line (-18.96 Units / -43.63% ROI).
- 9-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.4 Units / -44.56% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.74% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -9.61% ROI
Athletics Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Athletics are 19-14 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 3.79% ROI).
- 16-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 18.92% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -18.78% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 9.28% ROI
Athletics vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brent Rooker (OAK) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Shea Langeliers (OAK) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Athletics vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Abraham Toro (OAK) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler Nevin (OAK) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Athletics vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Abraham Toro (OAK) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brent Rooker (OAK) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler Nevin (OAK) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Athletics vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (57/142) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (91/141) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of just .087 (2 Total Bases / 23 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 98th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has struck out just 15% (16/105) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Athletics Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (36/99) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Paul Blackburn has a strikeout rate of just 13% (7 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (58/167) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Paul Blackburn has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (78/141) this season — 5th lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 63% — 10th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Athletics
The Marlins are just 30-57 (.345) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Marlins are 42-19 (.689) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Marlins are just 58-15 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 109-29 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
Athletics Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Athletics are just 35-75 (.318) after a home loss since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Athletics are just 34-64 (.347) at home since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Athletics are just 75-155 (.326) after a loss since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Athletics are just 18-44 (.290) after a home loss since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .366 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 237 opportunities (15%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 122 walks in 1,882 PA’s (7%) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Athletics Hitting Stats & Trends
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .288 (9,481 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .285 (6,414 PA’s) at home since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Athletics hitters are slugging just .355 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Athletics are batting just .218 since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 138 of 1,342 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Marlins have won just 14% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Athletics Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Athletics pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Athletics pitchers have walked 800 of 7,615 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Athletics pitchers have allowed a run 39% of the time after an opposing score since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Athletics have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Athletics vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ken Waldichuk (Oakland Athletics): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Aledmys Diaz (Oakland Athletics): Calf, 60-Day IL
- Freddy Tarnok (Oakland Athletics): Hip, 15-Day IL
- James Kaprielian (Oakland Athletics): Shoulder, Out
- Trevor Gott (Oakland Athletics): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rucinski (Oakland Athletics): Back, Out
- Sean Newcomb (Oakland Athletics): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Luis Medina (Oakland Athletics): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Angel Felipe (Oakland Athletics): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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