- The Blue Jays are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN | TVA | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-165) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Marlins are 60-100 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 78-82 ATS.
Marlins vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Xzavion Curry 1-2, 4.98 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yariel Rodriguez 1-7, 4.43 ERA
Marlins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -105 | +140 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -165 |
Marlins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 49 games (+44.50 Units / 91% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+11.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Davis Schneider has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+13.10 Units / 164% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 30 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 35% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 68 games (+16.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 away games (+14.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 133 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 33 away games (+11.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 65 games (+4.05 Units / 6% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 56 games at home (+16.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 57 games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+4.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+4.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 76-84 against the Run Line (-30.55 Units / -14.76% ROI).
- 60-100 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.05 Units / -9.05% ROI
- 85-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.8 Units / 6.68% ROI
- 67-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.5 Units / -14.53% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 78-82 against the Run Line (-17.9 Units / -8.28% ROI).
- 74-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.85 Units / -10.68% ROI
- 80-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -1.35% ROI
- 75-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -7.61% ROI
Blue Jays vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Blue Jays vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Blue Jays vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Blue Jays vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xzavion Curry (CLE) | 1.5 -190 | 1.5 +145 |
| Yariel Rodriguez (TOR) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (66/250) against Xzavion Curry since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has struck out just 15% (48/316) of right-handed batters he faced since the 2022 season — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has a strikeout rate of just 16% (97 SO in 606 PAs) since the 2022 season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (36/111) against Xzavion Curry with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yariel Rodriguez has walked 25 of 175 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Yariel Rodriguez has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (182/355) of the time this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Yariel Rodriguez has allowed three-ball counts to 31% of batters they faced (49/160 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.
Yariel Rodriguez has walked 23 of 160 left-handed batters (14%) this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Marlins are just 8-7 (.533) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Marlins are just 24-19 (.558) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 6-23 (.207) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Marlins are just 19-32 (.373) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Blue Jays are 40-34 (.541) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are just 16-37 (.302) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Blue Jays are just 17-73 (.189) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays are 27-15 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .635 (1,946 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (4,651 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .432 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of just .657 (1,395 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
The Marlins have allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 550 of 6,202 batters (9%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 29 of 229 batters (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 300 of 4,318 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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