- The Braves are -210 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Braves Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Marlins / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+170) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-210) on Monday, April 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Marlins are 6-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 10-10 ATS.
Marlins vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 2-1, 2.66 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | O 9.5 -115 | +170 |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | U 9.5 -105 | -210 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 61.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+5.15 Units / 86% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Chris Sale has hit the Earned Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Max Fried has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 70% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 82 of their last 144 games (+15.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 8-15 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -37.85% ROI).
- 6-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -40.72% ROI
- 13-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 9% ROI
- 10-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.35 Units / -16.99% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 10-10 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 2.65% ROI).
- 14-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 8.47% ROI
- 11-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 15.37% ROI
- 7-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -23.2% ROI
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| David Fletcher (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 46% (42/91) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.062 (17 Total Bases / 16 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .424 — first Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has thrown inside pitches 56% of the time (48/85) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (24/91) against Ryan Weathers on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (55/381) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 22% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (143/246) against Bryce Elder since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 45% of the time (632/1,420) since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has allowed a slugging percentage of just .474 (55 Total Bases / 116 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .621 — 95th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 14-158 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are just 108-29 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are just 30-55 (.353) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Marlins are 8-80 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 16-53 (.232) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Braves are 49-44 (.527) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Braves are 17-47 (.266) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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