Marlins vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

min read
Milwaukee Brewers' William Contreras hits a two-run home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants Sunday, May 28, 2023, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
(AP Photo/Morry Gash)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 27, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Brewers are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Marlins vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Marlins / Brewers TV Channel: BSFL | BSWI

The Miami Marlins (+130) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-155) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Marlins are 38-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 54-49 ATS.

Marlins vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 2-0, 2.12 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-7, 5.00 ERA

Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -160O 8 +100+130
Brewers -1.5 +135U 8 -120-155

Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+26.60 Units / 532% ROI)
  • Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.60 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 19 games at home (+13.40 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 away games (+15.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+10.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 77 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.65 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+11.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 103 games (+9.40 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+9.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 49-55 against the Run Line (-22.01 Units / -16.01% ROI).

  • 38-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.35 Units / -16.65% ROI
  • 57-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.1 Units / 7.06% ROI
  • 45-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.9 Units / -14.81% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 54-49 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 1.69% ROI).

  • 59-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.4 Units / 7.19% ROI
  • 55-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.35 Units / 7.43% ROI
  • 43-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.8 Units / -15.59% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (37/130) against Aaron Civale this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .458 (77 Total Bases / 168 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .351 — fourth Percentile.

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .515 (86 Total Bases / 167 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — fourth Percentile.

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since the 2022 season is 383.2 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 398.3

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Marlins are just 19-9 (.679) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.

The Marlins are just 11-12 (.478) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.

The Marlins are just 2-14 (.125) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .457.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Brewers are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Brewers are 37-17 (.685) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Brewers are 9-32 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.

The Brewers are 46-112 (.291) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.

team hitters – away

Brewers hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,730 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Brewers hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,953 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Brewers hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 120 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Brewers hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,918 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (1189.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.

Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.73 (2348.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.

Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.28 (784.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.

Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
  • Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
  • Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
  • Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
  • Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
  • Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
  • Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
  • Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
  • Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
  • Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
  • Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.