- The Mets are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-150) on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 23-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 29-36 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett 2-1, 5.89 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 1-0, 3.09 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -125 | +125 |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -105 | -150 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+15.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+13.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 away games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 36 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+1.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 27-39 against the Run Line (-23.51 Units / -26.16% ROI).
- 23-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.4 Units / -24.4% ROI
- 35-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.5 Units / 3.45% ROI
- 30-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -11.15% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 29-36 against the Run Line (-10.4 Units / -12.28% ROI).
- 28-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.3 Units / -15.55% ROI
- 32-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.05 Units / 0.07% ROI
- 29-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -8.1% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
| Braxton Garrett (MIA) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (408/859) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.9 MPH this season (80 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 89.1
Braxton Garrett has walked 11 of 250 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (1,000/2,171) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (251/512) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.3 MPH on the 98 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 87.8.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,806/3,009) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 45 of 352 batters (13%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .762.
The Marlins are just 2-8 (.200) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Marlins are just 4-8 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Marlins are just 20-13 (.606) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .939.
The Mets are just 17-10 (.630) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.
The Mets are just 13-9 (.591) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .844.
The Mets are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .061.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have drawn 96 walks in 1,615 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .199 (1,209 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .559 (764 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .394 (1,209 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have won just 22% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Mets are batting .271 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets are batting just .228 at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mets are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .939.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 62 of 587 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 58% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 202 of 1,999 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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