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- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: Runs
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The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-160) on Friday, June 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Marlins are 23-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 41-27 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 5-5, 3.43 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Marlins | + + | O + | +135 |
Nationals | + + | U + | -160 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 45 games (+17.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 29 games (+14.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+14.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+12.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 33 games (+10.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 36% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+11.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 away games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 60 games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 60 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 60 games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 62 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 28-40 against the Run Line (-24.11 Units / -26.05% ROI).
- 23-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.4 Units / -26.47% ROI
- 36-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 3.14% ROI
- 31-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -10.96% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 41-27 against the Run Line (+10.13 Units / 11.34% ROI).
- 32-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.15 Units / 14.69% ROI
- 30-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -9.61% ROI
- 34-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.83 Units / 1.1% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has allowed an OBP of .402 (107 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .279 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .147 (16-for-109) against Ryan Weathers when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (77/246) against Ryan Weathers on sliders this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has a strikeout rate of 51% (45 SO in 89 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (62/185) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (51/143) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a BABIP of .363 this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .281 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .488 (21-for-43) against MacKenzie Gore when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 1-23 (.042) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Marlins are just 4-9 (.308) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.
The Marlins are just 6-9 (.400) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .630.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 151-203 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 73-119 (.380) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Nationals hitters have just 2,017 strikeouts in 10,061 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .618 (717 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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