Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 14

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Washington Nationals' Luis Garcia hits an RBI single against the Seattle Mariners to score CJ Abrams during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, June 26, 2023, in Seattle.
(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 14, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The are + favorites vs the
  • Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: Runs
  • Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSFL

The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-160) on Friday, June 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.

This season, the Marlins are 23-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 41-27 ATS.

Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Marlins starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 5-5, 3.43 ERA

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+ +O ++135
Nationals + +U +-160

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 45 games (+17.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 away games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 29 games (+14.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+14.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+12.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 33 games (+10.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+11.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 away games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 60 games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 60 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 60 games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 62 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 28-40 against the Run Line (-24.11 Units / -26.05% ROI).

  • 23-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.4 Units / -26.47% ROI
  • 36-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 3.14% ROI
  • 31-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -10.96% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 41-27 against the Run Line (+10.13 Units / 11.34% ROI).

  • 32-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.15 Units / 14.69% ROI
  • 30-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -9.61% ROI
  • 34-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.83 Units / 1.1% ROI

Ryan Weathers has allowed an OBP of .402 (107 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .279 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .147 (16-for-109) against Ryan Weathers when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (77/246) against Ryan Weathers on sliders this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.

Ryan Weathers has a strikeout rate of 51% (45 SO in 89 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 96th Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (62/185) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (51/143) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a BABIP of .363 this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .281 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .488 (21-for-43) against MacKenzie Gore when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 1-23 (.042) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.

The Marlins are just 4-9 (.308) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.

The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.

The Marlins are just 6-9 (.400) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .630.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.

The Nationals are just 151-203 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.

The Nationals are just 73-119 (.380) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.

team hitters – away

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Nationals hitters have just 2,017 strikeouts in 10,061 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .618 (717 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Marlins have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
  • Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
  • Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
  • Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
  • Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.