- The Nationals are -120 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-125) on Saturday, June 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Marlins are 23-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 42-27 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-7, 5.38 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 0-1, 6.49 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -105 | -125 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 46 games (+18.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.90 Units / 79% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 55% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 away games (+7.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 61 games (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 games (+14.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 61 games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 28-41 against the Run Line (-25.46 Units / -27.11% ROI).
- 23-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.4 Units / -27.46% ROI
- 37-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 4.41% ROI
- 31-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -12.25% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 42-27 against the Run Line (+11.28 Units / 12.49% ROI).
- 33-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.15 Units / 15.74% ROI
- 31-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -8.14% ROI
- 34-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.27 Units / -0.35% ROI
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (18/45) over the last 14 days — lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (18/45) this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 57% (99/175) this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (18/45) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 40% of Davidjohn Herz’s pitches (21/53) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (6/28) against Davidjohn Herz this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Davidjohn Herz has allowed an OPS of .854 (22 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .535 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 19% (6/32) against Davidjohn Herz with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 20-14 (.588) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .763.
The Marlins are just 1-24 (.040) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Marlins are just 4-9 (.308) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are 6-1 (.857) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 74-119 (.383) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 26-45 (.366) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .203 (1,270 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .552 (796 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Marlins hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .910 (1,594 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.081.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals are just 3-14 (.176) against the run line (-55.2% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .350 (3,454 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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