- The Padres are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Padres TV Channel: BSFL | PDTV | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Wednesday, May 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Marlins are 19-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 30-28 ATS.
Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett 1-0, 5.31 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 4-2, 3.04 ERA
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | O 7 +100 | +145 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 7 -120 | -175 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+15.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+13.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 away games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.70 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 42 games (+18.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+13.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games at home (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 23-33 against the Run Line (-18.16 Units / -24.44% ROI).
- 19-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -26.78% ROI
- 30-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 26-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -11.08% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 30-28 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 5.75% ROI).
- 30-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -4.91% ROI
- 29-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 28-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -6.51% ROI
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish (SD) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Braxton Garrett (MIA) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 72% (18/25) against Braxton Garrett over the past seven days (1 games) — highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (27/40) against Braxton Garrett — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (389/817) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 72% (18/25) against Braxton Garrett — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed an OPS of 1.537 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .628 — first Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.125 (18 Total Bases / 16 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .350 — second Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of .958 (23 Total Bases / 24 ABs) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .350 — first Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OPS of 1.537 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .623 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are 17-178 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are 11-100 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Marlins are 28-15 (.651) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Marlins are just 114-30 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are just 7-20 (.259) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Padres are just 1-92 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Padres are just 8-144 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are just 4-153 (.025) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .262 (962 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .206 (1,023 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .546 (649 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .597 (720 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Padres are batting .303 on the road this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .739 (1,545 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Padres hitters have just 1,244 strikeouts in 6,026 PA’s (21%) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this month (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,264 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this month (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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