- The Phillies are -300 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+240) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-300) on Thursday, June 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:20pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 28-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 44-36 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-8, 4.92 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 9-4, 2.75 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +2.5 -135 | O 8 -120 | +240 |
| Phillies | -2.5 +115 | U 8 +100 | -300 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 72.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 away games (+14.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 34 away games (+12.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 65 games (+23.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 63 games (+21.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 62 games (+19.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 33 games at home (+17.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+15.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 34-46 against the Run Line (-26.56 Units / -24.43% ROI).
- 28-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.4 Units / -22.74% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.17% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -7.39% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 44-36 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 8.34% ROI).
- 53-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 10.93% ROI
- 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.45 Units / -12.95% ROI
- 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 3.94% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Whit Merrifield (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 +125 | 7.5 -165 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (48/95) this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Trevor Rogers had a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (10/23) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 48% (137/286) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 25% of the time (222/895) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .140 (23-for-164) against Zack Wheeler this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (762/1,791) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (501/1,183) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .412 (178 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .660 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 9-18 (.333) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Marlins are just 15-9 (.625) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Marlins are just 3-27 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Marlins are just 24-17 (.585) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-17 (.320) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Phillies are 47-6 (.887) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Phillies are 11-85 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .196 (1,469 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .593 (957 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .392 (1,469 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .538 (916 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .304 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Phillies are batting .260 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .232.
The Phillies are batting .251 with two outs since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 65% at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .122 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (721.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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