- The Phillies are -275 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL | ESPN+
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:20pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 29-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 44-37 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Kyle Tyler 0-0, 4.50 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 5-3, 2.60 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | +200 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 68.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 away games (+13.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 66 games (+24.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 64 games (+22.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 63 games (+20.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 34 games at home (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 64 games (+14.60 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 35-46 against the Run Line (-25.41 Units / -23.16% ROI).
- 29-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -17 Units / -19.7% ROI
- 42-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 0.95% ROI
- 38-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -8.53% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 44-37 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 6.84% ROI).
- 53-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 8.54% ROI
- 35-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 41-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 2.65% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| David Dahl (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tyler (MIA) | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +130 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Tyler has limited playing time.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (63/99) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (152/253) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (128/194) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 50% (237/471) against Cristopher Sanchez with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 9-18 (.333) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Marlins are just 2-11 (.154) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Marlins are just 9-8 (.529) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .755.
The Marlins are just 16-8 (.667) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Phillies are 8-17 (.320) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Phillies are 47-6 (.887) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .395 (1,490 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .446 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Phillies are batting .254 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Phillies are batting .251 with two outs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .305 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .121 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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