- The Phillies are -300 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+220) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-275) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 30-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 45-38 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Yonny Chirinos 0-0, 2.80 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 10-2, 1.85 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +110 | O 8 +100 | +220 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -130 | U 8 -120 | -275 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 69.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 away games (+15.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+15.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 37 away games (+13.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+7.50 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 68 games (+26.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 66 games (+24.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 65 games (+17.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 36 games at home (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games (+12.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 36-47 against the Run Line (-25.41 Units / -22.73% ROI).
- 30-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.9 Units / -18.01% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -1.48% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -6.13% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 45-38 against the Run Line (+6.35 Units / 6.37% ROI).
- 54-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 7.18% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -13.8% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 4.79% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Yonny Chirinos (MIA) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (33/55) against Yonny Chirinos on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 48% (69/145) against Yonny Chirinos vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 11th Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has a strike rate of 69% (114/165) this month (2 games) — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 94th Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH in the 2023 season (281 balls in play) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .140 (26 Total Bases / 186 ABs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (142/258) against Ranger Suarez this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 82% (18/22) against Ranger Suarez — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .108 (20-for-186) against Ranger Suarez with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 9-18 (.333) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Marlins are just 25-18 (.581) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Marlins are just 2-12 (.143) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Marlins are just 3-27 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 48-6 (.889) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Phillies are 4-22 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Phillies are 8-17 (.320) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .195 (1,527 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (995 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have drawn 113 walks in 2,020 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .262 (1,431 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (2,962 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Phillies are batting .261 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters are slugging .239 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .773 (4,711 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.77 runs per game (248/43) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 15 of 448 batters (3%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .121 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Phillies pitchers have walked 47 of 897 batters (5%) this month (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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